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Comment by andyhmltn | Hacker News Reader

Mark my words, within the next 3 years facebook will begin to decline. 90% of the people I speak to say they don't use facebook anymore because it's got boring.

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If your sample of people that you surveyed was representative of facebook users on the whole, then you wouldn't need 3 years to see the decline of facebook . It should have been happening right now because as you said, 90% of the people you've surveyed no longer use it.

It's fair to say that your sample group is totally flawed.

Well, I've heard of many people saying (and I still go to school, so my survey is kind of relevant) that they 1. have multiple accounts, like for games or 2. are bored by facebook/ annoyed by the stream of useless stuff, or even 3. simply hardly ever go online (as in, measured in weeks, or months)

Once again, the anecdotal evidence does not conform with the usage numbers released every so often that show facebook users spending massive amounts of time(average of 400 minutes per month per user).

A lot of people may whine that they are "bored" but that doesn't mean they don't use the site. That is the problem with going on anecdotes--they often represent what people say instead of actually do.

Exactly. Bored people go to Facebook.com. Bored? Type Facebook.com. That's what people do. And considering the influx of "content" pages, like George Takei's, which provide continuous content updates all day long, I can see why people check back frequently when they're bored.

Subscribe to 5-10 "content" feeds and your wall will always have another joke or post to read...

Many people do this, I imagine.

If you want to play this game, then sure: Mark my words, Google+ will never replace Facebook. When Facebook declines, it will be due to genre-fatigue, not unit-fatigue.

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