AI Destroys the Old Learning Curve. Wright's Law Is Being Rewritten

'Scale drives efficiency—for almost a century, industrial planners have relied on this simple principle. In 1936 aeronautical engineer Theodore Wright discovered that costs fell in a predictable way every time production doubled. The more you produce, the cheaper things become, in part because the learning cost per unit declines.

Artificial intelligence has accelerated this principle. It is rewriting Wright’s Law, which assumes that experience follows production: You make mistakes, learn from them and improve. AI makes it possible for experience to come before production. Simulation can happen millions of times before a single box is shipped. Experience scales almost instantly at no real cost. The learning curve doesn’t only steepen. It collapses.

That means knowledge that once took decades of human trial and error can emerge in weeks, days, even hours. In a supply chain, this is a profound shift. Decisions about capacity, warehouse space, routing, technology adoption and risk management can be modeled, tested and optimized in advance. The costs of imprecise planning shrink dramatically.

AI is breaking Wright’s Law because the learning cycle is no longer physical but computational. Distribution models can test, fail and improve millions of times faster than any team of human engineers. Experience can be generated in advance, at scale and at negligible cost.'

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