GPT-4 was released in early 2023. Back then AI maximalists were saying AGI is near. We're approaching early 2026 and we obviously aren't anywhere close to anything any reasonable person would consider AGI. But what do we have? "Agents" that are mostly useless. Image and video clip content generators that are pretty much only good for social media memes and spam. We do have better software development tools, but that's not a life changing advancement.
It seems like in order for all this speculation and all these massive build-outs to pay off we're going to need AI to redefine how we work and live within the next 3-5 years. Even if we AI development doubles or triples what it's been able to do in the last 3-5 years, I don't see this happening.
So, when this does not happen, when the AI hype does not live up to the promises, by a longshot, what will happen to the markets?
If any anthropic reps read this, I think you guys, while probably better than open AI and meta, possibly Google, are delusional and are more likely to destroy the world than create infinite human life.
You would expect that with low probability, highly leveraged bets, which shorts largely are. You are wrong most of the time and then make a giant pile of money when you are right. People definitely should understand that strategy though and not just follow him blindly into investments without the expectation that you will probably lose your money almost every time.
Has it? I couldn't find the returns for his fund. Since you have them can you post them and highlight what about them are horrific?
- In May 2021, Scion disclosed it acquired put options on Tesla shares.
- In August 2023, it was reported Scion anticipated a stock market crash and acquired $1.6 billion worth of put options to bet against the ETFs that tracked the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100.
- Scion also was noted to have held a large put option against the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
However, nothing about any of those points indicate his performance has been horrific.
All that matters are his returns against his reference index. That's the only relevant measure.
EDIT I did manage to find his returns via chatgpt and the OP is correct that they haven't been great in some periods, but his last 5 year average is +85% which isn't bad, not great, but not bad.
He is also up about 10% over the past year, so not great and not terrible, he's mid as the kids say.
The news is essentially about making a bet, as the title suggests, with no real evidence or information on who will pull the money out or how it will happen. Just because the price is high doesn’t necessarily mean there will be an outflow. It’s more like gambling, based on speculation rather than solid facts.