That means the numbers are as bad as or worse than everyone expects, and the administration wants to hide that data so they can lie about it without contradiction.
I think the Occam’s razor explanation is that this was caused by the shutdown, not a conspiracy.
Occam's razor suggests a coverup. Means, motive, and opportunity. Hanlon's razor is what you're suggesting.
Occam's razor rarely ever suggests a cover up. I don't think Hanlon's razor quite applies here since it's not obviously stupidity or malice vs. just actual work prioritization with unexpectedly limited capacity.
Are they even collecting the data at this point? Do they even know how bad the numbers are?
I don't know, but I'd bet that if they were expecting the numbers to be good, they would have made really sure the data was collected and reported.