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Comment by HardCodedBias | Hacker News Reader

I thought Ilya said we have more companies than we have ideas. He also noted that our current are resulting in models which are very good at benchmarks but have some problems with generalization (and gave a theory as to why).

But I don't recall him actually saying that the current ideas won't lead to AGI.

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He says the current models generalize dramatically worse than people: https://youtu.be/aR20FWCCjAs?t=1501

Then, he starts to talk about the other ideas but his lawyers / investors prevent him from going into detail: https://youtu.be/aR20FWCCjAs?t=1939

The worrisome thing is that he openly talks about whether to release AGI to the public. So, there could be a world in which some superpower has access to wildly different tech than the public.

To take Hinton's analogy of AGI to extraterrestrial intelligence, this would be akin to a government having made contact but withholding the discovery and the technology from the public: https://youtu.be/e1Hf-o1SzL4?t=30

It's a wild time to be alive.

It’s also weird to think that if there is extraterrestrial contact, it will most definitely happen in the specific land mass known as the United States and only the US government will be collecting said technology and hiding it. Out of the entire planet, contact is possible only in the USA.

I'm not sure if you're jabbing at the concept of American supremacy, or Hinton's idea, or my position. I don't live in the USA right now, but I am happy to participate in conversation. That's why I am here.

Can you unpack your ideas a bit more?

The current idea is keep doing more of the same & expect different results.

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