> here it's the peace prize, and over there it's their super mega unstoppable missiles

You're confusing motives and tactical reality. We're unsure about motives on both sides. We can, however, confidently speak to how weapons and tactics are facing off against each other, in large part due to the overwhelming amount of OSINT coming out of Ukraine.

Those data let us reject the hypothesis that the U.S. has any rational basis for being worried about Russian weapons or defences. (Which doesn't mean, of course, that they can't flip out. But again, motives versus tactical truth.)