There is no moat in being a frontier model developer. A week, month, or a year later there will be a open source alternative which is about 95% as good for most tasks people care about.
I get the feeling Amazon wants to be the shovel seller for the AI rush than be a frontier model lab.
The shovel maker will never make more money than a few lucky gold diggers.
I am basing my observation on the noises they are making. They did put out a model called Nova but they are not drumming it up at all. The model page makes no claims of benchmarks or performance. There are no signs of them poaching talent. Their CEO has not been in the press singing praises about AI unlike every big tech CEO.
Maybe they have a skunk-works team on it but something tells me they are waiting for the paint to dry.