Apple's slow AI pace becomes a strength as market grows weary of spending
finance.yahoo.com
finance.yahoo.com
I can explain more in-depth reasoning, but the most critical point: Apple builds the only platform where developers can construct a single distributable that works on mobile and desktop with standardized, easy access to a local LLM, and a quarter million people buy into this platform every year. The degree to which no one else on the planet is even close to this cannot be understated.
> Amazon Alexa is a “colossal failure,” on pace to lose $10 billion this year... “Alexa was getting a billion interactions a week, but most of those conversations were trivial commands to play music or ask about the weather.” Those questions aren’t monetizable.
Google expressed basically identical problems with the Google Assistant business model last month. There’s an inability to monetize the simple voice commands most consumers actually want to make, and all of Google’s attempts to monetize assistants with display ads and company partnerships haven’t worked. With the product sucking up server time and being a big money loser, Google responded just like Amazon by cutting resources to the division.
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/11/amazon-alexa-is-a-co...
Moving to using much more resource intensive models is only going to jack up the datacenter costs.
I only have a single internet-enabled light in my house (that I got for free), and 90% of the time when I ask the Assistant to turn on the light, it says "Which one?". Then I tell it "the only one that exists in my house", and it says "OK" and turns it on.
Getting it to actually play the right song is on the right set of speakers is also nearly impossible, but I can do it no problem with the UI on my phone.
I don't fear a future where computers can do every task better than us: I fear a future where we have brain-damaged robots annoy the hell out of me because someone was too lazy to do anything besides throw an LLM at things.
THIS!
It's weird because Gemini is so impressive multimodally but even the Gemini powered assistant can't figure out which lights to turn out, telling the TV to "play" doesn't mean turning it on (it means unpausing it!), just an incredibly frustrating experience.
Almost every company today wants their primary business model to be as a service provider selling you some monthly or yearly subscription when most consumers just want to buy something and have it work. That has always been Apple's model. Sure, they'll sell you services if need be, iCloud, AppleCare, or the various pieces of Apple One, but those all serve as complements to their devices. There's no big push to get Android users to sign up for Apple Music for example.
Apple isn't in the market of collecting your data and selling it. They aren't in the market of pushing you to pick brand X toilet paper over brand Y. They are in the market of selling you devices and so they build AI systems to make the devices they sell more attractive products. It isn't that Apple has some ideologically or technically better approach, they just have a business model that happens to align more with the typical consumers' wants and needs.
Personally, Google lost me as a search customer (after 25 years) when they opted me into AI search features without my permission.
Not only am I not interested in free tier AI services, but forcing them on me is a good way to lose me as a customer.
The nice thing about Apple Intelligence is that it has an easy to find off switch for customers who don't care for it.
Where everyone else sells you stuff to make money, they make money to create great stuff.
Where I think you are ultimately correct is that some companies seem to just assume that 100% of interactions can be monetized, and they really can't.
You need to deliver value that matches the money paid or the ad viewed.
I think Apple has generally been decent at recognizing the overall sustainability of certain business models. They've been around long enough to know that most loss-leading businesses never work out. If you can't make a profit from day one what's the point of being in business?
1) They thought an assistant would be able to operate as an "agent" (heh) that would make purchasing decisions to benefit the company. You'd say "Alexa, buy toilet paper" and it would buy it from Amazon. Except it turns out people don't want their computer buying things for them.
2) They thought that an assistant listening to everything would make for better targeted ads. But this doesn't seem to be the case, or the increased targeting doesn't result in enough value to justify the expense. A customer with the agent doesn't seem to be particularly more valuable than one without.
I think that this AI stuff and LLMs in particular is an excuse, to some extent, to justify the massive investment already made in big data architecture. At least they can say we needed all this data to train an LLM! I've noticed a similar pivot towards military/policing: if this data isn't sufficiently valuable for advertising maybe it's valuable to the police state.
I think this also hits an interesting problem with confidence: if you could trust the service to buy what you’d buy and get a good price you’d probably use it more but it only saves a couple of seconds in the easy case (e.g. Amazon reorders are already easy) and for anything less clear cut people rightly worry about getting a mistake or rip-off. That puts the bar really high because a voice interface sucks for more complex product comparisons and they have a very short window to give a high-quality response before most people give up and use their phone/computer instead. That also constrains the most obvious revenue sources because any kind of pay for placement is going to inspire strong negative reactions.
There lies the problem. Worse, someone may solve it in the wrong way:
I'll turn on the light in a minute, but first, a word from our sponsor...
Technically, this will eventually be solved by some hierarchical system. The main problem is developing systems with enough "I don't know" capability to decide when to pass a question to a bigger system. LLMs still aren't good at that, and the ones that are require substantial resources.
What the world needs is a good $5 LLM that knows when to ask for help.
Useful Douglas Adams reference: [1]
This is the monetization wall they have to figure out how to break through. The first inkling of advertising is immediate turn off and destroy, for me.
I find this a really interesting observation. I feel like 3-4 trivial ways of doing it come to mind, which is sort of my signal that I’m way out of my depth (and that anything I’ve thought of is dumb or wrong for various reasons). Is there anything you’d recommend reading to better understand why this is true?
Edit: IMO Apple is under-investing in Siri for that role.
Paraphrased: if you do things with the explicit goal to optimize revenue, it harms your business success. If you do things that optimize user experience and delight customers, it will provide more value long-term.
Voice assistants are in that latter camp, I believe. (And I think of this quote constantly as Tim Cook crams more ads into the ecosystem)
Amazon at one point was going to have a big facility in Boston as I recall focused on Alexa. It's just an uninteresting product that, if it were to go away tomorrow I wouldn't much notice. And I certainly wouldn't pay an incremental subscription for.
This is the part that hasn't made much sense to me. Maybe just.. have a better product?
As you quoted above, "most of those conversations were trivial commands to play music or ask about the weather." Why does any of this need to consume provider resources? Could a weather or music command not just be.. a direct API call from the device to a weather service / Spotify / whatever? Why does everything need to be shipped to Google/Amazon HQ?
So there's no way for them to do anything without sending it off to the datacenter.
If anyone knows of an open-source alternative I could stitch together, I am all ears!
In my experience none of these voice assistance are accurate enough to trust with my money
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuance_Communications#Acquisit...
I have pretty strong views on privacy, and I've generally thrown them all out in light of using AIs, because the value I get out of them is just so huge.
If Apple actually had executed on their strategy (of running models in privacy-friendly sandboxes) I feel they would've hit it out of the park. But as it stands, these are all bleeding edge technologies and you have to have your best and brightest on them. And even with seemingly infinite money, Apple doesn't seem to have delivered yet.
I hope the "yet" is important here. But judging by the various executives leaving (especially rumors of Johnny Srouji leaving), that's a huge red flag that their problem is that they're bleeding talent, and not a lack of money.
Somebody will figure out how to use it—complementing Cloud-side matmul, of course—and Apple will be one of the biggest suppliers.
The reason why local LLMs are unlikely to displace cloud LLMs is memory footprint, and search. The most capable models require hundreds of GB of memory, impractical for consumer devices.
I run Qwen 3 2507 locally using llama-cpp, it's not a bad model, but I still use cloud models more, mainly due to them having good search RAG. There are local tools for this, but they don't work as well, this might continue to improve, but I don't think it's going to get better than the API integrations with google/bing that cloud models use.
* If you trust the OS vendor, why wouldn't you trust them to handle AI queries in a responsible, privacy respecting manner?
* If you don't trust your OS vendor, you have a bigger problem than just privacy. Stop using it.
What makes people think that on-device processed queries can't be logged and sent off for analysis anyway?
From there, AI integration is enough of a different paradigm that the existing apple ecosystem is not a meaningful advantage.
Best case Apple is among the fast copies of whoever is actually innovative, but I don't see anything interesting coming from apple or apple devs anytime soon.
The problem for other companies is not necessarily that data center-borne GPUs aren't technically better; its that the financials might never make sense, much like how the financials behind Stadia never did, or at least need Google-levels of scale to bring in advertising and ultra-enterprise revenue.
[1] https://apps.apple.com/us/app/resident-evil-3/id1640630077
Until the first Cambridge Analytica-sized privacy story hits a major cloud LLM provider, maybe.
With "Apple Intelligence" it looks like Apple is setting themselves up (again) to be the gatekeeper for these kind of services, "allow" their users to participate and earn a revenue share for this, all while collecting data on what types of tasks are actually in high-demand, ready to in-source something whenever it makes economic sense for them...
Consumers don't care about whether an LLM is local, and one that runs on your phone is always going to be vastly worse than ChatGPT.
I see zero indication that Apple is going to replace people going to chatgpt.com or using its app.
All I see Apple doing is eventually building a better new generation of Siri, not much different from Google/Alexa.
People definitely will care that such private data stays safely on the phone. But it’s kind of a moot point since there is no way to share that kind of data with ChatGPT anyway.
I think Apple is not trying to compete with the big central “answer machine” LLMs like Google or ChatGPT. Apple is aiming at something more personal. Their AI goal may not be to know everything, but rather to know you better than any other piece of tech in the world.
And monetization is easy: just keep selling devices that are more capable than the last one.
So I don't see what unique advantage this gives Apple. These days people's data lives mostly in the cloud. What's on their phone is just a local cache.
On the other hand all devs having to optimize for lower RAM will help with freeing it up for AI on newer devices with more.
That being said, if people spend all their time interacting with LLMs for nearly everything, which is the direction we seem to be going in, what locks them in the Apple ecosystem?
i think at this point it's pretty clear that their AI products aren't bad because it's some clever strategy, it's bad because they're bad at it. I agree that their platform puts them in a good place to provide a local LLM experience to developers, but i remain skeptical that they will be able to execute on it.
it will become Generally Obvious that Apple has the best consumer AI story among any tech company.
I love my Macbooks and think they can be great for local LLMs in the future. But the vast majority do not care and they do not want to setup complicated local LLMs. They want something that just works on the computer, tablets, and phones - ideally all synced together.Local LLMs will never be better than cloud LLMs. They can close the gap if/when cloud LLM progress stalls.
Let's not conflate Apple's failure in cutting edge transformer models with good strategy.
No clue how many google smart speakers sold either, but not reason to think it's lower than homepods really, they're 1/3 the price.
I think you have steve jobs colored glasses.
Apple has the ability and hardware to deeply integrate this stuff behind the scenes without buying in to the hype of a shiny glowing button that promises to do literally everything.
You can do that right now, on the stock market. Sometimes it's good to put your money where your mouth is, that forces you to correct your world view.
There's an on device LLM that is packaged in iOS, iPadOS and macOS 26 (Tahoe) [1]. They even have a HIG on use of generative AI [2]
Something like half of all macs are running macOS 26 [3] already, so this could be the most widely distributed on-device LLM on the planet.
I think people are sleeping on this, partly because the model is seen as under powered. But I think we can presume it won't always be so.
I've just posted a Show HN of app for macOS 26 I created that uses Apple's local LLM to summarize conversations you've had with Claude Code and Codex. [3]
I've been somewhat surprised at the quality and reliability of Apple's built-in LLM and have only been limited by the logic I've built around it.
I think Apple's packaging of an LLM in its core operating systems is actually a fast move with AI and even has potential to act as an existential threat to Windows.
[1] https://developer.apple.com/videos/play/wwdc2025/286/
[2] https://developer.apple.com/design/human-interface-guideline...
Probably not as many out there as there are Apple devices because it is only the high end ones at the moment. I don’t think they are that far behind in numbers though.
Here are some real rough estimates in Apple's ecosystem:
For macos alone the install base is something like 110-130 million, and only Apple Silicon macs can run the new model, so maybe 45 million active macs are updated to macos 26 and can run their model.
There are a bunch of details but of the iPhones out there that are new enough to run Apple Intelligence and have iOS 26, something like 220 million can.
For iPad same conditions but for iPados its something like 60 million.
So, something like 325 million active devices are out there ready to run LLM completion requests.
The only thing it's useful is super basic tasks like sentiment classification, summarization (sort of), or stuff like, "Does this message contain toxic/bad language, answer yes or no only".
- Everyone else: "We mainly build huge AI compute clusters to process large amount of data and create value, at high cost for ramp-up and operation."
- Apple: "We mainly build small closed-down AI compute-chips we can control, sell them for-profit to individual consumers and then orchestrate data-processing on those chips, with setup and operational cost all paid by the consumer."
I can't think of any company which has comparable know-how and, most of all, a comparable sell-out scale to even consider Apple's strategy.
No matter what they do, they will sell hundreds of millions compute devices for the foreseeable future. They use this to build out AI infrastructure they control, pre-paid by the future consumers.
THIS is their unique strength.
I wish they did but they don't. They have been for decade so stingy on RAM for iPhone and iPad. There are at current point that only small percent of their userbase have iPhone or iPad with 8GB RAM that somehow can run any AI models even open source and be of any use. Not mentioning they don't compare to big Models.
They don't even provide option to sell iPhone with bigger RAM. iPad can have max 16GB RAM. Those mainstream macbook air also can have max 32 GB RAM.
And for the current price of cheap online AI where e.g. perplexity provides so many promo for PRO version for like less $10 per year and all ai providers give good free models with enough rate limit for many users I don't see apple hardware like particularly bought because of AI compute-chips - at least not non-pro users.
If the loose AI though and because of that won't have good AI integrations they will loose also eventually in hardware. e.g. Polish language in Siri still not supported so my mum cannot use it. OSS Whisper v3 turbo was available ages ago but apple still support only few languages. 3rd party keyboard cannot integrate so well with audio input and all sux in this case because platform limitation.
To me, it feels like Apple should have supported CUDA from the start. Sell the ARM-hungry datacenter some rackmount Macs with properly fast GPUs, and Apple can eventually bring the successful inference technology to cheaper devices. Apple's current all-or-nothing strategy has produced nothing but redundant hardware accelerators, while Nvidia's vertical integration only gets stronger.
How will that work out with the battery?
I mean, they could have mined crypto on our phones but that would have been a bad idea for the same reason.
That's a selective list. High RAM Macs are available. MBPro goes up to 128GB. Mac Studio goes up to 512GB. Not cheap, but available.
Consumer hardware chips will be plenty powerful to run “good enough” models.
If I’m an application dev, do I want to develop something on top of OpenAI, or Apple’s on device model that I can use as much as a I want for free? On device is the future
The existential FEAR of the smartphone ecosystem players (Apple, Google) is, that another ecosystem (!) may come along, one that is tighter integrated into the daily lives, is more predictive of the users' needs, requires less interaction and is not under THEIR control.
Because this is not about devices, it's about owning the total userbase of that OS-ecosystem.
Replacing the Smartphone has been attempted numerous times in the past decade, but no device was able to replace it as a consumption device. Now technology has reached a level of maturity that Smart Glasses may have a shot at this. AND they come along with their own ecosystem as well.
Whatever happens, they won't replace all phones within 5 years. But it's possible that such a device would become a companion to an iOS/Android phone and within 5 years gradually eases off users of their phones into that other ecosystem.
And that's scary for Apple and Google.
Because this is not a device-war, this is an ecosystem-war.
Having piles of money when everyone else is lighting it on fire and a brand that would require quite the mistake to ruin gives you a long runway.
Is anyone really profiting from AI yet? I know Google basically saved their search monopoly but any one else?
In my view Apple is positioning themselves (once more) to win without the need of competing on fair grounds. They are late to this party, but their biggest asset is the control over the data and spending of their users.
The users WANT to use those services, and Apple is not ready to offer anything. But as long as they can be the "broker" between the user and such services (and most of all the deciding party!), they can sell the consumption of their entire userbase for revenue-share to the service-providers.
Their biggest risk (beside of stock-market impacts) is, that Apple users start to engage directly with such services without Apple being an intermediary party (using a browser or another device).
So their highest priority will be to keep the user entertained so they can continue profiting from their consumption until they themselves have arrived at the party.
Once they have arrived, they will start diverting profitable AI-tasks from 3rd parties back to their own services, leaving unprofitable ones to the then-integrated 3rd party providers
...Nvidia? Did you just step out of a cryogenic chamber from 2008?
The datacenter business is booming right now, cutting-edge and efficient hardware is needed more than ever. Nvidia and Apple are the only two companies in the world with the design chops and TSMC inroads to address that market. Nvidia's fully committed and making money hand over fist; Apple is putting 2nm silicon in the iPad Pro and asking fucking consumers to pay $1,500 for it. Do you not see the issue with this business model?
People will say Apple can't crack the datacenter market, I say bullshit. Apple drafted OpenCL. Every dollar Nvidia makes is money Apple pissed away on trinkets like smartwatches and TikTok tablets.
I'm not sure how Apple is enabling anything interesting around AI right now.
That's what this bland article is not even touching on. Yes, having missed the boat is great if the boat ends up sinking. That doesn't make missing boats a great strategy.
Building huge models and huge data centers is not the only thing they could have done.
They had some interesting early ideas on letting AI tap app functionality client-side. But that has gone nowhere, and now everything of relevance is happening on servers.
Apple's devices are not even remotely the best dumb terminals to tap into that. Even that crown goes to Android.
I'm not following. What infrastructure? Pre-paid how?
Apple pays for materials and chips before it sells the finished product to consumers. Nothing is pre-paid.
And what infrastructure? The inference chips on iPhones aren't part of any Apple AI infrastructure. Apple's not using them as distributed computing for LLM training or anything, or for relaying web queries to a complete stranger's device -- nor would they.
The AI-capabilities of the devices will be pre-paid, as they will come with the product without delivering any significant value yet. The end-user will bear the cost for that before he is getting anything meaningful in return, because Apple's production volume is at such a scale that they can offset those investments without risking to lose any meaningful sales volume.
Other players can't do that because they don't sell 200mn units per year. If they would add on-device inference chips, they would have to significantly increase the device-price, risking to not sell any product
What Apple is also doing is investing server-side, just like everybody else, precisely because phones can't handle the serious stuff:
https://www.macrumors.com/2024/12/11/apple-intelligence-serv...
So I'm not really seeing the unique Apple advantage here. Samsung is doing the exact same thing with Android, with LLM-optimized silicon.
> Magic Cue - Magic Cue proactively surfaces relevant info and suggests actions, similar to how Apple's personalized Siri features were supposed to work. It can display flight information when you call an airline, or cue up a photo if a friend asks for an image.
https://www.macrumors.com/2025/08/20/google-pixel-10-ai-feat...
Google shipped it, despite it not working.
> I spent a month with the Pixel 10's most hyped AI feature, and it hasn't gone well
https://www.androidauthority.com/google-pixel-10-magic-cue-o...
Likewise Daily Hub didn't work but was shipped anyway.
> In our testing, Daily Hub rarely showed anything beyond the weather, suggested videos, and AI search prompts. When it did integrate calendar data, it seemed unable to differentiate between the user’s own calendar and data from shared calendars. This largely useless report was pushed to the At a Glance widget multiple times per day, making it more of a nuisance than helpful.
https://arstechnica.com/google/2025/09/google-pulls-daily-hu...
Apple announced that the Siri uodate didn't work well enough to ship, and didn't ship it.
They roll out hardware to consumers they can use for AI once their service is ready, with users paying for that rollout until then.
Meanwhile they have started to deploy a marketplace ecosystem for AI tasks on iOS, where Apple has the first right-to-refuse, allowing the user to select a (revenue-share-vetted) 3rd party provider to complete the task.
So until Apple is ready, the user can select OpenAI (or soon other providers) to fulfill an AI-task, and Apple will collect metrics on the demand of each type of task.
This will help them prioritize for development of own models, to finally make use of their own marketplace rules to direct the business away from third parties to themselves.
My guess is that they will offer a mixed on-device/cloud AI-service that will use the end-users hardware where possible, offloading compute from their clouds to the end-users hardware and energy-bill, with a "cheap" subscription price undercutting others on that AI-marketplace.
But for this to make economic sense, the "AI-bubble" may need to burst first, forcing the competitors to actually provide their services for-profit.
Until then it might be more profitable to just forward AI-tasks to OpenAI and others and let them burn more money.
I'm not sure where you position Samsung or Xiaomi, Oppo etc. They're competitive on price with chipsets that can handle AI loads in the same ballpark, as attested by Google's features running on them.
They're not vertically integrated and don't have the same business structure, but does it matter regarding on-device AI ?
- Apple owns more than 50% of this market-segment, the annual sales of iPhones is roughly 200 Million units. In comparison, Samsung Galaxy S-series sits at roughly 20-25 Millions.
- Apple's is alone in the iOS ecosystem, while Samsung, Xiaomi and Oppo have to compete within the Android space every year. iOS is extremely sticky, which makes a certain volume of iPhones almost guaranteed to sell every year, at a lofty profit margin.
In comparison, Samsung always has to consider that the next BAD Galaxy-S might only sell a fraction of the previous one, because users might move horizontally to another Android brand (even to Pixel, a first-party product of their ecosystem provider). So Samsung cannot even make bets based on the sale of 20 million units, they are already at risk to make bets on the initial shipment-volume (~5 millions) because if the device doesn't sell they will have to PAY money to the carriers to get them into the market.
Apple has a much lower risk here. If the next iPhone is not catching on, Apple will likely still sell 200mn iPhones in that year, because the ecosystem lock-in is so strong that there is little risk of losing customers to anything else than ANOTHER (then more-profitable) iPhone.
So even when assuming a MASSIVE annual drop of 25% in Sales, Apple can still make development bets based on a production forecast of 150 MILLION units.
For their supply-chain that's still an average production output of ~400k units per DAY for each component. With that volume you can get entire factories to only produce for you.
That's why I can't think of any company in a comparable position. Apple can add hardware to their device and sell the resulting product to the consumer for profit before delivering any actual value with it.
If any competitor in the Android space attempts that, just the component costs alone will risk the device to be dead-on-arrival just because "some other Android device" delivers the same experience at lower cost.
I read the original comment as positing no other company is positionned to forgot building their own AI platform and instead sell pricey terminals that can run second party local models.
From that POV, sur Samsung and others have competition, and theirargins won't be as large as Apple, but they also have a larger market and can work with less money (Samsung as a whole will never struggle to find more)
> 50% of this market-segment
If we're limiting the segment to phones that have enough RAM to run decent models, Apple users who haven't updated to the upper models (no SE, no 16e etc) recent years are all out of the picture. I didn't check the numbers, but wouldn't have expect them to be much ahead of Samsung and the beasties Android devices.
I don't want to imply that this is their only play or that it will even work out.
The EU (and others) already identified this general scheme of stiffling competition by "brokering" between the consumer and the free market, so outside of the US I'm not even sure how much Apple will be able to rely on such a strategy (again)...
To my understanding, they market their ML stack as four layers [1]:
- Platform Intelligence: ready-made OS features (e.g., Writing Tools, Genmoji, Image Playground) that apps can adopt with minimal customization.
- ML-powered APIs: higher-level frameworks for common tasks—on-device Foundation Models (LLM), plus Vision, Natural Language, Translation, Sound Analysis, and Speech; with optional customization via Create ML.
- ML Models (Core ML): ship your own models on-device in Core ML format; convert/optimize from PyTorch/TF via coremltools, and run efficiently across CPU/GPU/Neural Engine (optionally paired with Metal/Accelerate for more control).
- Exploration/Training: Metal-backed PyTorch/JAX for experimentation, plus Apple’s MLX for training/fine-tuning on Apple Silicon using unified memory, with multi-language bindings and models commonly sourced from Hugging Face.
I'm not saying AI is a gimmick, but the caution they show is a good quality I think
https://www.axios.com/2025/03/20/apple-suit-false-advertisin...
OSX's Aqua was also an insanely bold UI with a lot of gimmicks, but was still usable for the most part. I'm so very curious about the internal discussions around this.
I’m an hour from Cambridge, MA. Ask the weather? I always get Cambridge, UK. Siri is terrible.
They can’t even make a functional keyboard anymore. The text prediction and autocorrect is worse now than it was in 2010!
These are all solved problems in 2025.
Cook might be less susceptible to gimmickery than some of his peers. But he's definitely got an imperfect batting average, here.
But also, their tendency to "not fall from gimmicks" sometimes makes it so we didn't get a 2nd mouse button for decades. Ultimately, the way they implemented this was super cool, but still.
Having to license Gemini from Google and Qwen from Alibaba for Siri isn’t Apple falling severely behind?
There's an unfulfilled promise of spatial computing. I wish I could load up my preferred CAD program and have wide and deep menus quickly traversable with hand gestures. Barring that the least it could do is support games. Maybe if some combination of miracle shims (fex emu, asahi, w/e) were able to get onto the platform it might be savable. The input drivers alone would be a herculean task.
quality sacrificed for speed, resulting in mediocre, buggy software.
The classic AI business manager formula.
Hype about self driving cars -> apple chases it with apple car -> investors pleased they kept up with the joneses -> apple car is behind or not good enough or whatever -> quietly cancelled -> investors pleased they culled the deadweight.
You can replace apple car with vision pro or soon apple intelligence and it will play out the same formula. Luckily it allows investors to profit.
> “The right info, right when you need it.” That’s how Google describes Magic Cue, one of the most prominent new AI features on the Pixel 10 series. Using the power of artificial intelligence, Magic Cue is supposed to automatically suggest helpful info in phone calls, text messages, and other apps without you having to lift a finger.
However, the keyword there is “supposed” to... even when going out of my way to prompt Magic Cue, it either doesn’t work or does so little that I’m amazed Google made as big a deal about the feature as it did.
https://www.androidauthority.com/google-pixel-10-magic-cue-o...
I'd rather see companies admit that a promised feature isn't ready for prime time than hype it up only to ship it broken.
OP doesn't literally mean they haven't made anything, he means that they've made nothing of real substance - which holds true when their biggest recent release is already completely forgotten by the public writ large.
They’ve made plenty of things. I liken them to the Lexus of consumer electronics; expensive for what they are, thoughtfully designed, and conservative in their approach to adopting new trends.
Heck, in accordance with the several zeitgeists of our age, I'll even do you the solid of fraudulently generating the money-on-fire pictures with AI, so when you get tired of seeing your money on fire I'll even hand, say, 25% of it back to you, as the result of my tireless efforts to bring value to my shareholders. That's a better return than you'll get from most of these investments!
That's not lucky. That's sad. They never ask the question "could we have earned _more_ profits with a better strategy?"
The market is not rational.
Historically the strength of Apple was that they didn't ship things until they actually worked. Meaning that the technology was there and ready to make an experience that was truly excellent.
People have been complaining for years that Apple isn't shipping fast enough in this area. But if anything I think that they have been shipping (or trying to ship) too fast. There are a lot of scenarios that AI is actually great at but the ones that move the needle for Apple just aren't there yet in terms of quality.
The stuff that is at a scale that it matters to them are integrations that just magically do what you want with iMessage/calendars/photos/etc. There are potentially interesting scenarios there but the fact is that any time you touch my intimate personal (and work) data and do something meaningful I want it to work pretty much all the time. And current models aren't really there yet in my view. There are lots of scenarios that do work incredibly well right now (coding most obviously). But I don't think the Apple mainline ones do yet.
They dragged their feet on a host of technologies that other handset makers adopted, released and subsequently improved.
- USB C charging
- 90hz, 120Hz refresh rates
- wireless charging
- larger batteries (the iPhone 17 still lags behind Samsung and Google)
I'm not sure what happened, but the iPhone used to have the most fluid, responsive experience compared to Android. Now, both Google and Samsung have surpassed them in that regard.
I've used both Android and have owned several iPhones and it just seems like its not an issue of releasing something that isn't ready, but more about them not being capable enough to release phones to compete with other phones that are regularly beating them in the specs race.
In general I would agree, but Siri is honestly still so bad.
Tell that to almost anything they've shipped in the last 5-10 years. It's gotten so bad that I wait halfway through entire major OS version before upgrading. Every new thing they ship is almost guaranteed to be broken in some way, ranging from minor annoyance to fully unusable.
I buy Apple-everything, but I sure wish there were better options.
now the tides are turning, so they can go back to scheming behind the closed doors without risking their top people leaving for meta for a bazillion dollars.
Great artists steal.
Historically the strength of Apple was that they didn't ship things until they actually worked. Meaning that the technology was there and ready to make an experience that was truly excellent.
ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini are already working.And this is the case across the board.
My friend's Fitbit works way better than my Apple watch.
Third and final example is how bad Apple's native dictation engine is. I can run OpenAI Whisper models on my Mac and get dramatically better output.
As a long time Apple fan who's had everything since before the first iPhone, I feel this apathy towards product quality cannot be disguised as some strategic decision to fast follow with AI.
My husband has a Fitbit and it's so buggy he left it sit on the shelf most of the time - the only times he'd wear it is for exercise.
Siri is bad though, but I have found Google Voice Assistant and Alexa both really have become bad over time, to the point of us just giving up on them completely. My husband is on Android and I'm really surprised how bad voice assistant is despite all the Gemini launches! (mind you he has an Australian accent)
I went through three FitBits. After the third failed just outside warranty I got an Apple watch, which has outlasted all three FitBits.
That's odd because I've used both, along with a bunch other wearables (e.g. Whoop), and I wouldn't give up my Apple Watch for anything. Massively useful, can take calls, make payments, stream music from my Apple playlists, read and reply to messages, and a ton of other things.
I mention this because , at least for the functionalities that you mention, I think the pixel watches are catching up nicely.
... but they still haven't been able to make me feel less stupid talking into a watch for phone calls like some off-brand James Bond wannabe, even if it works great.
But for everything else, you literally just said, the handful of AI features are better on Google products... That seldom makes the product as a whole better.
Siri isn't competing with Gemini, yet.. Siri is old tech, Gemini is the new tech.
Same with dictation.
Siri hasn't been updated generationally with SOTA to compete with Gemini yet.. it simply hasn't been updated. This is part of the "slow pace" that the post is talking about (part of, not entirely the slowness though).
For example, Amazon updated my old Echo dots with Alexa+ beta, and it's pretty good. I have Grok in my Tesla, and though I don't like Grok or xAI, it's there and I use it occasionally.
Apple hasn't done their release of these things yet.
Overselling abilities is for sure a lack of quality.
I only have Apple product because it’s good build quality. But it’s quite bad products.
I think Apple secretly doesn’t want more market share, to avoid anticompetitive accusations.
Everyone’s shares were battered earlier this year, and it had nothing to do with AI, and everything to do with tariffs.
From a user perspective it may not be a strength: users / customers may expect certain functionality that works accurately and responsively.
A few months ago, MCP-style tool calling seemed like the clear standard. Now even Anthropic is shifting toward "code-mode" and reusable skills.
For Apple, reliable tool calling is critical because their AI needs to control apps and the whole device. My bet: Apple's AI will be able to create its own Shortcuts on the fly and call them as needed, with OSA Script support on Mac.
As Google integrates Gemini into their Google Assistant and Google Home products, if it starts to become leaps and bounds better than Siri, customers are going to start wondering why Apple is falling behind. If Apple can't achieve those things without AI and that could cause problems. Customers aren't saying "I want AI features", but they are indirectly asking for them because the features they want require AI to do what they expect.
(I realize Google and Apple have a deal happening to have Gemini integrated into Siri so this isn't the best example, but I think it illustrates the point I'm trying to make)
I certainly never heard anyone complain in real life.
It would be like MS is forcing their copilot currently everywhere, it is totally useless and a nuisance.
It's certainly been useful in my organization.
Not to say Apple isn't also degrading their OS with bad design changes, but "more AI" is not something users are clamoring for.
I am yet to see ai functionality ppl are dying for.
It’s not the same, but PMs and VPs at my company think we can vibe code our way out of migrating a 1.6 million line codebase to a newer language / technology. Or that our problems can be solved by acquiring an AI startup, whose front end looks exactly the same as every other AI startup’s front page, and slapping a new CSS file that looks like that startup on top of our existing SPA because their product doesn’t actually do anything. It’s an absurd world out there.
And they also got slapped with class action lawsuits for failing to meet promised AI capabilities in products they launched
It’s easy to understand from evidence like this why they are falling behind, even if you believe they will pull ahead later
I know it's fashionable to shit-talk AI and Google, and lord knows I dislike the latter, but Gemini works and is day-to-day useful.
The reason there was such a narrative is because Wall Street and Silicon Valley are both narrative machines with little regard for veracity, and they are also not that smart (at least according to people who successfully beat their system, such as Buffett).
"Warren, if people weren't so often wrong, we wouldn't be so rich." – the late great Charlie Munger.
Let everyone else pay for the research and make the mistakes, find out what works and what doesn't. Apple already has the consumers, they might as well save a few (hundred?) bn in the process and later deploy something which doesn't tell you to glue your cheese to your pizza.
Apple Music is an ecosystem play.
A problem is that even though it is super simple to write Swift / SwiftOS apps to use the system model, I don’t see much evidence that many developers are using the model in their apps.
I had pondered practical implementations of the model since it was announced and have just released today a new native macos application that uses it to summarize Claude Code and Codex conversations as they occur. [2]
If you use either of these CLI agents and have time to try the app out and provide feedback, I'd appreciate it! I'm at rob@contextify.sh.
I hope they adopt the same model with AI - leverage whatever frontier model is best and provide their own privacy infrastructure in front.
At some point Apple will figure out a way to provide the right info from your calendar, messages, email etc as context and couple this with a bunch of secure tools for creating calendar entries, etc. Agentic AI will then be something I personally benefit from.
https://www.engadget.com/big-tech/judge-puts-a-one-year-limi...
Limits are now being placed on it as of a couple days ago
Trying and failing to make a SoTA foundational model is not a strategic move. It's similar to Amazon and Meta, they also have tried and not succeeded.
Microsoft has been criticized for investing in AI heavily. But it actually makes sense for Microsoft if you consider the nature of their business. The problem is not with the investment per se but with what they got out of it. Unfortunately, Microsoft sucks at product management, so instead of creating useful stuff that users want and are ready to pay for, they created stuff that no one understands, no one can use, and no one wants to pay for. Github copilot is an exception of course. I'm talking more about their Office 365 AI.
Now, after a few months (!), reality sets in and those hyped-up investors realize that it's not as much of a short-term game as they told themselves it would be...
When and if Apple pulls the plug on AI, we can declare it dead for this cycle. See you all again in 2040.
By the time local LLMs are good enough, OpenAI will already have an iPhone competitor.
I think the decision is first a self-serving one that's in line with how they want their devices and services to operate, but it also happens to be (in my opinion) the future-proof way of integrating consumer AI.
Why do papers do this. I can achieve any numbers by cherry picking the date for the random brownian motion.
Apple clearly takes a 'Measure Twice, Cut Once' approach.
It seems to me that tech and business analysts mostly supply uninformed nonsense opinions around whatever the popular rhetoric of the day is to generate more clicks :-/
How many times do we have to listen to tech and business analysts talking about lacklustre iPhone releases and how Apple hasn't done anything interesting since the original iPhone? But yet the iPhone 17 is flying off the shelves in China.
The revenue from AI is growing at a much slower rate than recurring capex and depreciation is accumulating. This will create distress opportunities that cash-rich companies like APPL may seize. Might be a private equity deal, might be in the public markets as some of the players dip hard after IPO.
As this plays out, APPL's silicon has unified memory, power consumption and native acceleration that gives it an edge running SLMs and possibly LLMs at scale. Wouldn't shock me to see APPL introduce a data-center solution.
APPL was the Type Code[0] for an Application, in classic MacOS (1984).
Consumers of Apple's core businesses do not stand to gain much, if anything, from so-called "AI." The failure of pundits and "analysts" to recognize and call that out just testifies to their laziness. They can never say exactly WHY or HOW this "behindness" is hindering Apple or its user base.
It's sad that Apple has capitulated to them at all by even talking about "AI."
“AI” is a semi-meaningless misnomer, of course, but e.g. a natural language interface is something Apple had tried since forever (Siri) and always failed to get functional and useful. So this part of “not gaining much” is probably false.
Paired with every vendor’s love to tweak things at random - including Apple, a natural language (if done right) could be a meaningful solution to UI consistency (“Hey Siri, I dunno where the goddamn toggle is located this time but stop making music auto-play every other time phone connects to CarPlay” - real use case with real value). Yet, as usual, Siri lacks in intelligence and capabilities.
I’m pretty sure it’s not some genius wisdom of Tim, or whoever. Apple simply didn’t do any user-facing useful shit (they did some interesting stuff for developers, but that’s a different story), plastered some generative emojis to tick the “AI” checkbox, and now people praise them for that.
And, I can see value in an all-local language model ingesting everything on my computer so I can find things. But let's face it: People managing large amounts of stuff on their computers and wanting to search it are a shrinking minority now.
But I still think the real-life payoff is minimal. A better Siri? Maybe. But if you look at Google's "AI" search results, they suck ass. They don't even hold up to what could be accomplished with straight-up parsing and searching. Here's an example I just got today, when I searched for "how much is a DeLorean worth?"
(Wow, Google has now disabled copying from search results. What petty jagoffs, after THEY copy and regurgitate others' work)
"A DeLorean DMC-12's value varies widely, from around $18,000 for project cars to over $50,000 for excellent condition models, with the nationwide average being about $83,725."
Is that so much to ask?
Apple has generally been a company that waits, gets criticized for being behind, and then produces a better version (more usable, better integrated, etc), claims it is new, and everybody buys it. Meanwhile a few people moan about how Apple wasn't actually the first to make it.
The golden goose is dead.
Now days with "Apple Intelligence" enabled, half of a siri response is "I found this with ChatGPT, verify important information".
As far as user experience goes, it reminds me of those stupid warnings every time you start a car that basically says "drive safe!"
I find a lot of the low-key things helpful: I use an app at the same time and place every day, and it’s nice to have a handy one-tap way to open it. It does a decent job organizing photos and letting me search text in screenshots.
lmao, even
They are flat-out incompetent. Siri has somehow regressed over the years and visual intelligence only works in demos. They have the most abominable integration with ChatGPT imaginable.
At least the MLX team has been shipping an impressive product.
Me: Nah, it doesn't. I get fine-grained app permissions but there's a certain absurdity in using voice control for your CarPlay app, where Apple Maps is currently navigating you home, and you say "Find me the nearest Panera" and the reply is "Sorry, I don't know where you are."
Has it ever, for anyone?
I'm on bed, the Mac's on the desk.
iPhone and iPad charging next to the Mac.
"Hey Siri, put the Mac to sleep"
iPhone blares up with a cacophony loud enough to wake the graveyard several blocks over, even though it's set to silent:
"IT LOOKS LIKE YOU HAVEN"T SET UP ANY SMART HOME ACCESSORIES BLAHABHLABHALDHFLDSFHELWRHWELRHWELHROUWEHROWEHRQWLR$P#@U4"
Fuck you Tim Cook.