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Comment by komali2 | Hacker News Reader

Sorry, I don't quite understand what this means, can you help?

Russia seems poised to invade Europe in the near future. If they do, and succeed, Rome could become part of the new Soviet Union(which Putin has explicitly said he wants to bring back)

Once that happens, it's likely to lead to poverty. At least that's what happened in the last USSR

> Russia seems poised to invade Europe in the near future. If they do, and succeed

Is this a joke? There is literally no chance this ever happens.

Russia’s kleptocracy has impoverished the country so much that it now needs attrition in its male population to keep people from rising up against the current leadership. War is how you keep poor citizens from rebelling against you. When the war is over, historically the returning soldiers (especially in Russia) overturn the leadership. So there is never an incentive to stop a war. Especially a losing one.

The fact that it's a fragile kleptocracy basically reduce to 0 any possibility of a normal future. Puppet state at best, if someone is willing to take them. I expect they already planned what to do with the returning soldiers, not that they will like it or accept gracefully what's in store for them.

China will buy Siberia. No shots fired.

I would not be surprised.

Or simply take it over. No shots fired.

Those cover Russia's motivation, which is indeed strong. You can add that Putin wants the glorious Soviet Empire days back, and that without additional buffer zones Russia is very vulnerable to land invasion (in Summer). Russia has plenty of reasons to conquer much of Europe

But I don't see Russia's capability to do so. Their kleptocracy has impoverished the country and has repeatedly lead leadership (including Putin) to overestimate their own capabilities. Male population faces attrition from war and alcoholism. Leadership has a habit of dying in mysterious accidents or falling out of windows, reducing the amount of experienced leaders available and discouraging anyone with a brain from rising up too far. And they are barely able to advance in Ukraine.

There are legitimate concerns that Russia might attack other countries once the Ukraine war concludes. They might even make some initial territorial gains because they are in full war economy while Europe has only scaled up enough to support Ukraine, and has depleted ammunition stockpiles. But I don't see them getting very far

Eyes wide shut in the west still.

Yes, this was in fact an explanation of a joke. "In Soviet Russia, Rome is a poor city" requires both a currently-existing Soviet Russia, and Rome to be a part of it. Both of those are far-fetched. "Russia seems poised to invade Europe in the near future" is a bad explanation, since they are currently invading a country geographically in Europe.

Why wouldn't it happen? America's new direction is that Europe is the enemy, and massive resources will be poured into propelling the already popular right wing parties, which are Russian puppets, into power. They don't need boots on the ground to conquer the continent, they just need a cynical population that doesn't see the difference between good and bad, just like in the US.

>Russia seems poised to invade Europe in the near future

only if the near future includes the year 2150 because as of right now the Russian defense ministry is celebrating the liberation of individual bakery plants on their state media

https://tass.com/politics/2041223

Invade with what? Refugees running away from a poor and failing country? Man...

Russia is neither poor nor failing, and saying that is underestimating the real actual danger they present.

Russia has vast natural resources and enough buyers for those resources even if the EU manages to completely stop (at significant cost). Their industry turned to wartime mode, resulting in the fact that they now have more armored vehicles than in February 2022.

Will they actually physically reach Italy? Probably not. Will they try to buy it out and bring a (even more) fascist autocratic regime there? Probably yes.

It's both poor, failing and with a population affected by chronic depression. But for that reason (desperation) they should not be underestimated and should have been handled in a way less gentle way.

> Russia has vast natural resources and enough buyers

Not saying that it's not what has kept them standing until now, but the buyers make the price in this case. So who knows what the price could become in the future.

> Will they try to buy it out and bring a (even more) fascist autocratic regime there? Probably yes.

Are you still talking about Russia with their monopoly currency? "Try" as in one probability over one billion to succeed and be disposed of a few days later. This ability to influence foreign countries effectively and not in clownish ways is a nice story for kids.

Let's entertain that idea. Suppose they did invade most of Europe.

How would they keep everyone under control? You won't find that many people eager to participate in satellite regimes or new social experiments, like you had in post-WWII.

I don't think Russia will even consider invading western Ukraine. They'll keep the Russian speaking part which they can easily govern.

> How would they keep everyone under control? You won't find that many people eager to participate in satellite regimes or new social experiments, like you had in post-WWII.

Through cynicism and propaganda, just like they've been doing at home, and the same way it works in the US now. Everyone can see the corruption and depravity of the current regime, it might as well be a Russian satellite (many people would claim it already is), and yet we all collectively do nothing about it.

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