They’re not lying when they say they have AI write their code, so it’s not just promotion. They will thrive or die from this thesis. If present YC portfolio companies underperform the market in 5-10 years, that’s a strong signal for AI skeptics. If they overperform, that’s a strong signal that AI skeptics were wrong.

3. You are absolutely right. New startups have greenfield projects that are in-distribution for AI. This gives them faster iteration speed. This means new companies have a structural advantage over older companies, and I expect them to grow faster than tech startups that don’t do this.

Plenty of legacy codebases will stick around, for the same reasons they always do: once you’ve solved a problem, the worst thing you can do is rewrite your solution to a new architecture with a better devex. My prediction: if you want to keep the code writing and office culture of the 2010s, get a job internally at cloud computing companies (AWS, GCP, etc). High reliability systems have less to gain from iteration speed. That’s why airlines and banks maintain their mainframes.