Hacker News Reader

Comment by TrainedMonkey | Hacker News Reader

I long had a similar idea for stocks. Analyze posts of people giving stock tips on WSB, Twitter, etc and rank by accuracy. I would be very surprised if this had not been done a thousand times by various trading firms and enterprising individuals.

Of course in the above example of stocks there are clear predictions (HNWS will go up) and an oracle who resolves it (stock market). This seems to be a way harder problem for generic free form comments. Who resolves what prediction a particular comment has made and whether it actually happened?

View on HN

> Analyze posts of people giving stock tips on WSB, Twitter, etc and rank by accuracy.

Didn't somebody make an ETF once that went against the prediction of some famous CNBC stock picker, showing that it would have given you alpha in the past.

> seems to be a way harder problem for generic free form comments.

That's what prediction markets are for. People for whom truth and accuracy matters (often concentrated around the rationalist community) will often very explicitly make annual lists of concrete and quantifiable predictions, and then self-grade on them later.

You probably mean Inverse Cramer:

https://finbold.com/inverse-cramer-leaves-sp-nasdaq-and-dow-...

Cramer is the stock picker guy. There is a well known "Cramer Effect" or "Cramer Bounce" where the stock peaks then drops hard.

Makes for great pump n dump if you're day trading and willing to ride

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cramerbounce.asp

long-term his choices don't do well, so the Inverse Cramer basically says "do the opposite of this goober" and has solid returns (sorta; depends a lot on methodology, and the sole hedgefund playing that strategy shutdown)

I ran across Sybil [1] the other day which tries to offer a reputation score based on correct predictions in prediction markets.

[1]: https://sybilpredicttrust.info/

Out of curiosity, I built this. I extended karpathy's code and widened the date range to see what stocks these users would pick given their sentiments.

What came back were the usual suspects: GLP-1 companies and AI.

Back to the "boring but right" thesis. Not much alpha to be found

Reply on news.ycombinator.com