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Comment by random9749832 | Hacker News Reader

A lot of those "enemies" can't protect Ukraine which they are much more geographically positioned to defend.

Plus a lot of morals go out of the window when there is a real threat and a lot on the line. Even between the new tensions with China and Japan, the US appears to be quiet: https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3...

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The West would probably cut economic ties with China like they cut them with Russia. For the simple reason that economic ties would help their enemy.

Invadin Taiwan would have a huge negative impact in China. Another poster in this thread, in the process of contradicting himself, said that the longer PRC waits the stronger they become. The conclusion then being that the best course of action for China is to never invade Taiwan. I fully subscribe to this conclusion.

lol it's not contradictory, there are specific PRC strategic milestones that shifts TW scenario, or a broader push to boot US+co out of east asia and gain PRC asian hegemony from potential gamble to forgone. And that's what PRC ultimately wants, their own Monroe. There's a few components left that more or less secures this in next 10/20 years where balance of forces makes US posture existentially unfavorable. The intersection period is mid 2030s-2040s where basically broader strategic balance is baked in, it's just matter of watching relevant trend lines cross (or gap extend). Realistically that's when we can expect things to pop off. The best course of action is for PRC to NOT JUST INVADE TW, but use TW as cassus belli for broader east asian war with US+co to dismantal postwar hemisphereic US security archictecture. The conclusion is, TW is basically PRC's legitmate excuse to shoot US hardware for meddling in domestic Chinese civil war card, it's simply too good to squander right now. Now ultimately international law doesn't matter in WW3, but it helps to have legimate reason to start a constrained WW3 in a way that would cause third parties to sit out (why meddle in ongoing Chinese civil war) and ask why not be net winners while US and PRC and most of east asia "lose". Ultimately for PRC it shouldn't be enough for them to gain TW, but US must also lose east asia.

Ukraine could easily be protect if there was a will to do so in the West. Very few people want to go die fighting for a country they can't even point to on a map so the the most effective solution to defending Ukraine is off the table.

Not sure about "easily" but I believe the idea at this point is to not escalate, drag out the war and win on economic grounds. Of course dragging things out also comes at a huge price for Ukraine but the EU/US seem to have accepted that as the price to be paid despite the moral posturing.

This is definitely not the sort of "protection" I would rely on.

On the flip side though see how badly things are working out for Russia. I think EU will not do business with Russia for a generation. Russia is really fucked.

PRC sees the writing on the wall and, being the pragmatic bunch that they are, will probably not invade Taiwan. Unless Xi really controls the country 100% (this I do not know since I am not a Chinese observer) and goes crazy like Putin did.

I agree that it is just dragging on and that is what I meant by describing the alternative as easy. Sending money and weapons is just leading to more death and destruction and no victory for Ukraine.

I don't think Ukraine can win with the way things are going unless the West joins the fighting or Russia collapses. Waiting until Russia collapses will quite possibly be a long time which will result in a Pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. They will have an entire generation of dead men at the rate things are going.

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