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Any thoughts on what to extent GitHub is subsidizing OSS development with its CI?

This feels like one of the big issues that OSS projects might face when migrating to an alternative.

What might a less GitHub centric CI ecosystem look like for OSS community?

Small to mid sized OSS projects benefit heavily from this. There is a size beyond which the free runner sizes become insufficient, but the assumption is that some form of monetization is figured out by that time. For example, we have a lot of OSS projects using WarpBuild because performance and fast CI is important for productivity.

Without GitHub's free CI for public repos, the small projects and indies will get hit the hardest imo.

However, I do not know hard numbers to quantify the impact.

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