I cannot understand how can a founder be confident in an investor meeting about an outcome. The future is so unpredictable that any confidence is most likely phony.
Confidence is signal alongside objective financials. Consider how YC selects founders, for example (“are they obsessed and willing to break some rules,” broadly speaking). Success is rarely assured, but signal and data is all you get to decision. How does that compare to rolling dice? I’m sure you can find the data based on asset class.