The Manus Debate and Why Some Bubbly AI Moonshots Aren't Bubbles

How do you tell moonshots from bubbles? What categories are especially bubbly? Is there some practical index? Most VCs thought Manus at $500m was a bubble, and yet it exited at several billion.

This is an insightful piece digging into how to pick out the not-stupid bets in a time that reads as stagflation to some, commoditizing frontier research to others.