Show HN: Calculating the probability of winning the US Presidential Election

Using daily data from electoral-vote.com, I calculate the probability of either candidate winning the presidential election.

http://prespredict.com

Note: * I submitted this about three months ago, and there is much more data on the site now.

* It is somewhat similar to 538, and as far as I can tell, I'm using a simpler model but still getting numbers close to those on 538.

* I have also added results from 2004, which shows an interesting parallel to Bush's chances after his first disastrous debate with Kerry. He was eventually able to overcome that by the end of the third debate.