Hacker News Reader

And hasn’t changed the deadline he gave to his military “to have all options for reunification available by 2027”

Peaceful reunification is not in the cards. It will be war or nothing and it ain’t gunna be nothing.

I should point out the obvious that this is a directive to the PLA to develop capabilities to take the island by 2027, it isn’t a directive to attack in 2027. Taken at face value, China is admitting that it doesn’t have the capability to take Taiwan right now, which I think is a bit surprising.

What's so surprising about it? Russia had been smashing their heads against the Ukraine wall for years now.

Defending can be done very efficiently with modern weaponry.

And Taiwan is more powerful than Ukraine potentially and more economically important.

China has been working on amphibious and naval capabilities for a decade now. The trick for the PLA is not to just successfully take Taiwan, but to do it in a way that doesn’t leave the whole island as a smoking crater. Geology and topography isn’t China’s friend in this, they can’t just roll some tanks into Taiwan, and all of Taiwan’s infrastructure is on the west side of the island, with the ryukyus way too close for comfort.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com