> you have no test environment
That can be solved.
> the original vendor no longer exists
Even more reason that your company needs to upgrade.
> That computer is connected to industrial equipment that costs millions of dollars ... any failure or downtime at best will cause millions in financial losses
I heard a minute of downtime on an oil rig costs millions in financial losses.
So a fuck-up is extremely expensive. Nothing new to me. I've also worked in industries where a fuck-up can cost lives. That's also extremely expensive.
Trust me, there are software engineers and hardware engineers who know your pains and aren't afraid of how difficult you think this stuff is. Yes it's difficult, no it's not impossible. And it's a lot cheaper than you think if it's done right.