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Comment by InclinedPlane | Hacker News Reader

To be honest I think that 20 years from now people won't look back and say "3D printing, ahah! that was the revolutionary invention" but it will be a part of a larger set of inventions and innovations which will revolutionize manufacturing.

For example, I think 3D printing as a method to rapidly make metal casting and injection molds (either directly printing the molds or via lost-material casting) is potentially more impactful to manufacturing than direct 3D printing. The truly big innovation of 3D printing and, say, "table top manufacturing / fabrication" systems won't come because such devices will be immanently practical for home use. Instead what I think is more likely is that the ability of hobbyists and tinkerers to experiment with them will lead to an explosion of innovation. Meaning: better tools and techniques for automating and simplifying the process of transitioning from design to manufacturing.

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I think 3d printing has a lot in common with 2d printing. And I have not had a printer for since collage, and I tend to go months between printing something at work.

Of course if were talking about a 3d printer that can print me up a soda or an iPad that's a different story. But, if it's just little plastic objects well, that's stuck in the realm of knickknacks / Junk IMO. And I suspect most people will quickly get to that point after the first cheap 3d printer shows up.

But will we ever get to the point where the general consumer will be able to print something as complex as an iPad with as good fit and finish as one from apple?

Or alternately how long will it take until we can print an iPad?

That is Jetson's stuff now. Current 3D printing processes have about as much to do with demonstrating real progress toward printing iPads as 2D printing processes do.

Hitting print and having a fully-assumbled iPad put on the platter is definitely Jetson stuff, but we do have the technology to print plastics, glass, and even circuit boards. The remaining components needed to build an iPad-like device can be sourced from your favourite electronics supplier. Having all the building blocks to build a tablet at your disposal is still really amazing.

if it's just little plastic objects well, that's stuck in the realm of knickknacks / Junk IMO. And I suspect most people will quickly get to that point after the first cheap 3d printer shows up.

It could really revolutionise some things, like home appliances. The little plastic latch on your appliance break? Print out a new one. The plastic flap that keeps your battery in on your digital camera break? Print out a new one. Suddenly a lot of devices might be much more 'repairable' now.

That would be great - but would depend on companies building their devices to support this

One- Not necessarily. That depends on how the legal aspects shake out, which is not yet known.

Two- Competitive forces will favor companies which support this approach.

>Two- Competitive forces will favor companies which support this approach.

Kinda like open source won the desktop? No wait...

I'm skeptical.

For things like appliances most manufacturers already sell replacement parts for cheaper than you could "print" them yourself, without the problems associated with printing it yourself.

For things like consumer level electronics, the manufacturers could sell replacement parts, but they'd prefer people replace the entire item. If the camera manufacturer won't sell a replacement flap, it's unlikely they'll give out the original CAD files for people to print their own.

> I think 3d printing has a lot in common with 2d printing.

In terms of the process, sure. But the product is vastly different; '2D' printing just generates a new encoding of the same information you've already got stored electronically, and when everyone has PCs and smartphones and tablets, a physical encoding of information is rarely a necessity.

But 3D printing actually creates a functional physical object that corresponds to a design; it's not merely a re-encoding of the information itself, so there's a huge value-add with 3D printing that isn't at all present in document printing, even if the current iteration of the technology is limited to producing small-scale uniformly plastic parts.

I drive an old Mitsubishi and parts are often impossible to come by even at the junkyard. I look forward to the day when a local machine shop can download the mold and make me my part even if expensive because the alternative is rigging a part from another vehicle.

Another effect: prototyping is surely the most labor-intensive part of the manufacturing process. This will reduce the share of employment attributed to manufacturing while possibly increase output.

Like all other manufacturing technologies.

I agree, There's definetly a lot of new tools for simplifying prototyping and manufacturing. And that's a long trend seen in many fields.

But this pushed hard on testing processes. Industries like software, that can avoid testing(through bugs and reuse and good testing tools) seen an innovation boom.

But industries where testing is hard, seen troubles in innovation. Pharma is a good example of this with the small amount of new drugs in the pipeline, even thought there's tons of "prototypes".

So i wonder,is there a need, and how can we automate and simplyfy the need of physical product testing ?

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