The productivity studies on software engineers directly don't show much of a productivity gain certainly nowhere near the 10x the frontier labs would like to claim.

When including re-work of bugs in the AI generated code some studies find that AI has no positive impact on software developer productivity, and can even have a negative impact.

The main problem with these studies are they are backward looking, so frontier labs can always claim the next model will be the one that delivers the promised productivity gains and displace human workers.