Words are cheap. I really wish there was a way to incentivize authors like this to put their money where their mouth is, before seeking attention for their ideas.
Would love to hear how that could work.
Is this financial advice? :-)
It's always a way to lose a massive amount of money if you're wrong, so the advice is also contingent on confidence level.
When retail guys talk shorting, it's very hard to take them seriously.
And then maybe he might ... change the bet! when he was about to lose?
Maybe!
Who's to say, really? Certainly not me! I'm just a neural network!
Many of his criticisms of OpenAI and LLMs have been apt.
Demanding that people gamble with their often limited finances to prove a point orthogonal to the one they're actually making feels disingenuous and dismissive to me.
"Team X is definitely winning, I'm certain". "So you'll offer me 1000-1 on the opponent?". "No". "6-1?", "No". They often realize they are about 65% certain at some point. And they often aren't being hyperbolic, they are just not thinking clearly.
Clearly not. Does the fact that few of us know the date of our death imply that we might live forever?