> When a bully is threatening you, the very worst thing you can do is to give in to the bully
Agreed in principle, but in this case there are two bullies to worry about which changes that equation.
You can choose to align with the bigger tougher bully who is periodically reasonable, has a lot of shared values, and generally has been historically friendly to you. They only occasionally get grumpy and have to be placated. This alignment has, can, and will protect against the other bully.
Or…you can chose to not align with them because they went and got grumpy again and the consequence of that is they will just ignore you when the other bully comes calling to kick your ass.
Factor in that you can’t align with the other bully at all because they have never ever been friendly or reasonable to you. They also don’t have hardly any shared values. They cant protect you from the other bigger tougher bully anyway. So its a moot point.
At the end of the day you are faced with a sort of global political version of Pascal’s Wager.