The machine that has the NAT's external IP to it is, well, the NAT, by definition. So you admit that the NAT box will act almost exactly like a connection tracking firewall, even if only NAT is enabled.
It's not like I'm sat here thinking "I know it does block traffic, but I'm going to lie to everyone that it won't". NAT in fact, actually, really and honestly, doesn't block traffic, and I think I've been pretty consistent in saying as much.
A stateful firewall would block packets addressed to the router, or to machines behind it. NAT not translating a packet won't do either of those things.