These things are supposed to have intelligence on tap. I'll imagine this in a very simple way. Let's say "intellignce" is like a fluid. It's a finite thing. Intelligence is very valuable, it's the substrate for real-world problem solving that makes these things ostensibly worth trillions of dollars. Intelligence comes from interaction with the world; someone's education and experience. You spend some effort and energy feeding someone, clothing them, sending them to college. And then you get something out, which is intelligence that can create value for society.
When you are having a conversation with the AI, is the intelligence flowing out of the AI? Or is it flowing out of the human operator?
The answer to this question is extremely important. If the AI can be intelligent "on its own" without a human operator, then it will be very valuable -- feed electricity into a datacenter and out comes business value. But if a model is only intelligent as someone using it, well, the utility seems to be very harshly capped. At best it saves a bit of time, but it will never do anything novel, it will never create value on its own, independently, it will never scale beyond a 1:1 "human picking outputs".
If you must encode intelligence into the prompt to get intelligence out of the model, well, this doesn't quite look like AGI does it?
You spend energy distilling the intelligence of the entire internet into a set of weights, but you still had to expend the energy to have humans create the internet first. And on top of this, in order to pick out what you want from the corpus, you have to put some energy in: first, the energy of inference, but second and far more importantly, the energy of prompting. The model is valuable because the dataset is valuable; the model output is valuable because the prompt is valuable.
So wait then, where does this exponential increase in value come from again?
I don't understand the analogy. A lever doesn't give you an increase in power (which would be a free lunch); it gives you an increase in force, in exchange for a decrease in movement. What equivalent to this tradeoff are you pointing to?
I see it with coworkers all the time. They'll ask ChatGPT to do an analysis and it'll output test results for a T-test. They don't know how to interpret it at all, and so it's ultimately meaningless to them. They're just using "stat sig" as a way to make a non-technical VP happy. In situations like this, I don't think a highly intelligent source, model or human, can make the recipient be more intelligent than they actually are.
If you ask a sophisticated question (lots of clauses, college reading level or above) it will respond in kind.
You are basically moving where the generation happens in the latent space. By asking in a sophisticated way you are moving the latent space away from say children's books and towards say PhD dissertations.
Come on, this is human behavior 101, y’all.