I'm reasonably sure I do. I've done that exact test literally half a dozen times now due to people telling me that I'm wrong, and each time I test it turns out that I'm right. What other conclusion am I supposed to come to?

I think it's someone else's turn to do the test now.

> The inbound packets from the internet are to a public IP that belongs to the device performing NAT.

If the inbound packets are addressed to the router, they get delivered to the router. But you cannot just declare that that's where they'll be addressed. You aren't in control of what packets show up to your router, you're only in control of how you process them after they show up.