You’re right to call out consumer use is what’s eating all the tokens. I suppose what was behind my way of putting it is: I haven’t seen much in the way of truly transformative products with LLMs in the consumer space. Sure, there’s a few power users doing some cool things, and lots of promises along the lines of “AI will plan and book you a whole vacation!”, but basically for the median consumer we have an “improved search”, and “fun image generation”, with people using it a couple times a week. So what is the product that changes the world and makes 500M people pay $100 a month? I don’t think it’s really here yet. This feels a bit like we’re in 1996 where people are still trying to figure out what the internet is for, and we don’t know if OpenAI will be 1996’s Amazon, or its AOL.

None of this is to deny how remarkable the underling LLM tech is. I never expected to see something like this in my lifetime; it feels far far more strange and new than when the iPhone came along. I use a coding agent daily and it’s dramatically changed how I work. But I still think we’re in a bubble here.