Does anyone have a link to a good political model for Iran?
This looks maximally stupid given the American hardware in the region. But there may be internecine angles I’m missing. (Which factions benefit from American air strikes?)
This looks maximally stupid given the American hardware in the region. But there may be internecine angles I’m missing. (Which factions benefit from American air strikes?)
But frankly, Iran as it stands today is structurally similar to pre-1976 PRC, and requires an Iranian "Deng Xiaoping", but the only reason Deng even got as far as he did was because the Sino-Soviet Split made the PRC an attractive partner against the USSR and because it took someone with the stature of Mao to host a "Nixon in China" moment, which made partnering with America politically palatable.
The key economic and political institutions in Iran (Army, IRGC, Bonyads) would need to be incentivized to flip to being pro-EU and pro-America in order to sustain the semblance of democracy and secularism because frankly, Russia, China, India, portions of the Gulf, and much of ASEAN is fine working with Iran as it stands today because it is a critical regional power.
Turkiye, the UAE, Qatar, KSA, and Pakistan are probably the best regional players to push a gradual re-opening of Iran.
Then it turned out to be bluster, there /was/ damage.[0]
It's /really/ hard to get good independent coverage of most politically charged events (The fog of war, etc)
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Ai...
This writer has developed a model of the situation
Short of an unignorable mass attack on the homeland, America has a proven track record of turning the other cheek.
No one should be. But only idiots, today, are not fearful of the largest and most-comprehensive war machine in human history.
> America’s response has been essentially non-existent
Are we starting the clock after the Israeli campaigns that established air superiority over all of Iran?
Yep, that’ll show them.