I think native apps will continue to have significant advantages over the time frame you mentioned. The biggest reason is the following:

Steps to open the Facebook web app- 1) Click on browser 2) Type in Facebook.com 3) Sign in

Steps to open the Facebook native app- 1) Click on Facebook

HTML5 (and other web languages, but mostly HTML5) apps may be more prevalent in the future than they are now due to cross-compatibility advantages, but it is still difficult to use phone functionality in comparison to native code.