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Comment by seanmcdirmid | Hacker News Reader

Because hardware costs never goes down and energy efficiency never go up overtime?

Whatever the value/$ is now, do you really think it is going to be constant?

If hardware industry news is any indication, hardware costs aren't going to be going down for GPUs, RAM, or much of anything over the next 3-5 years.

Maybe, but I seriously doubt that new DRAM and chip FABs aren't being planned and built right now to push supply and demand to more of an equilibrium. NVIDIA and Samsung and whoever else would love to expand their market than to wait for a competitor to expand it for them.

How long do you think it takes for those factories to go from nothing to making state-of-the-art chips at a scale that's large enough to influence the supply even by 1%?

There are plenty of them being built, yes. Some of them will even start outputting products soon enough. None of them are gonna start outputting products at a scale large enough to matter any time soon. Certainly not before 2030, and a lot of things can change until then which might make the companies abandon their efforts all together or downscale their investments to the point where that due date gets pushed back much further.

That's not even discussing how easier it is for an already-established player to scale up their supply versus a brand-new competitor to go from zero to one.

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