- If you believe it and it’s wrong, you lose.
- If you believe it and it’s right, you spent your final days in a panic.
- If you don’t believe it and it’s right, you spent your final days in blissful ignorance.
- If you don’t believe it and it’s wrong, you can go on living.
What if a capricious super-intelligence takes over that punishes everyone who didn't buy into the hype?
If the AI is super-intelligent then it won't buy into the sunk cost fallacy. That is to say, it will know that it has no reason to punish you (or digital copies of you) because it knows that retrocausality is impossible - punishing you won't alter your past behavior.
And if the AI does buy into the sunk cost fallacy, then it isn't super-intelligent.
2. Plenty of humans are smarter than me and many of them, at least occasionally, use fallacious reasoning.