I've seen non-programmers successfully launch real apps — not toy projects — through vibe coding. I'm doing it myself, and I'm about to ship a developer tool built the same way.

They'll still need to pick up the fundamentals of the programming — that part isn't optional yet. And getting to that level as a non-programmer takes real effort. But if the interest is there, it's far from impossible. In fact, I'd argue someone with genuine passion and domain expertise might have better odds than an average developer just going through the motions.