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Comment by randusername | Hacker News Reader

> AI replaces codified knowledge – the kind of learning you get from classrooms or textbooks – but struggles with tacit knowledge, the experiential judgement that accumulates over years on the job. This is why seniors are spared and juniors are not. But Oks’ thesis treats this as reassurance: see, humans with deep knowledge still have comparative advantage! I believe this is more of a senior worker’s luxury, and the protection for “seniors” will move up and up the hierarchy over time.

Times change, the ladders you and I climbed to success may not be around in the same forms for our children. That's not new. But will there be any ladders to climb if the bottom rungs are all gone?

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All the kids already wanted be influencers, ironically turns out that's one of the safer career paths when AI is factored into the equation. Still not plumber or electrician safe, but the potential upsides are much higher.

AI is already taking over content generation

Eventually created and consumed by AI, fewer and fewer humans will consume it.

I will consume less of it, and have actively blocked or unsubscribed from orgs that promote it, but the generation behind us won't have these scruples.

AI Influencers are already making inroads. I don't think it's as safe as you think.

AI is making inroads everywhere, but as it takes over human connection is going to get more important, not less. AI video novelty is wearing off, platforms are moving to downrank AI content, and people are looking for more authenticity/trust signals.

there is no more connection with your favorite human influencer than there is with an "AI" influencer

they're both a scam, just the "AI" influencer isn't a pretty woman

it's a 45 year old balding guy, with 25 accounts

> ironically turns out that's one of the safer career paths

When I was doing mentoring there were dozens of young people pursuing influencer goals.

Zero of them made it anywhere.

It’s not a safe career path unless you ignore the 99.99% of influencers who don’t get traction and only look at the couple who become famous.

Yep, it's not any different than being a musician. Lots of people are good at writing/singing/playing music, very very few get anywhere with it.

You can get ramen profitable off 1k YT subscribers if you choose the right niche and monetization strategy. That's a reasonable bar if you have some persistence.

Once demand drives electrician salaries up to $200k/year, the influencer grind will lose some of its shine

Why would demand go up?

Yes electricians are definitely safer than those of us who work in front of a computer all day, but I don’t think AI is good for them either. First of all, more young people might try to become one, potentially crowding the sector. Second, if the rest of us are poorer we’ll also spend less in housing and other things that require an electrician.

You need electricians for data centres, at the very least.

I expect data center electrical design to go modular and maintainable in a completely automated way.

It's more about supply going down (fewer people going into trades), which eventually affects demand for that shrinking pool.

>> All the kids already wanted be influencers, ironically turns out that's one of the safer career paths when AI is factored into the equation

This is quite false. It is trivial to generate UGC (user-generated content) using AI now, and the resulting short-form videos are virtually indistinguishable from the real thing.

Our culture is very novelty driven. AI video novelty is wearing thin and platforms/users are pushing back. You might be able to surf the long tail with fake videos, but I expect credible proof of humanity is going to become very important for people who get a lot of attention.

Besides AI what other commenters pointed out, commercialized / "production line" influencers are already a thing and have been for years. I've seen some pretty dystopian studios being posted on social media (take that with a grain of salt because internet).

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