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Comment by Steko | Hacker News Reader

"Then once they saw both, they would pull the trigger to buy the one they wanted."

What's far more common would be more or less uninformed people walked in to buy an iphone 5, and were told it was out of stock for weeks and the salesman (who gets a significantly better commission on Samsung phones) tries his best to sell them the GS3 and sometimes does. I know this is a common story because I've actually seen the exact scenario play out several times in the course of an hour I spent with my wife in the Sprint store activating her phone.

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You and mdasen both have a valid theory. Unfortunately it's just that, a theory.

If mdasen is correct, sales for all phones should rise following the unveiling. If Steko is correct, only the Galaxy S III would spike, and other phones would probably dip in sales.

Both theories are probable enough that they likely happened in tandem - with some people waiting to see Apple's phone before pulling the trigger, others heading for Apple and being sold a Samsung. We could probably figure the quantity of each by comparing sales variations by brand and model.

No, not all phones. iPhone-class phones, of which the Galaxy S III is most certainly the most successful and hardest pushed.

When someone comes in the store asking for an iPhone 5, the salesperson is not going to push some cheap crap on them. They will push the best, most expensive alternative. As far as I can see the Galaxy S III is pretty much the only phone marketed on eye level with the iPhone by carriers.

If Steko saw it play out, then it is more than a theory. It is a contributing factor.

Well, it's also purely anecdotal at that point.

Parent assumes however that everyone walking into the store looking for a phone wants or deserves the iPhone but is sold an (implicitly) inferior one because iPhone is not in stock and / or the salesman gets more commission to sell the S3. The S3 is actually a great phone and I find it hard to believe people don't know the iPhone and accept something they don't like. At the least they consider both and go with the S3 because they like it and partially because they can't buy the iPhone anyways. Remember Microsoft / Nokia paying more commission to sales people hasn't taken WP anywhere.

Tangentially is Apple losing their acclaimed grip on the supply chain if they can't make enough iPhones but Samsung can make and sell double that after paying sales people more and still making 7.4B in profit?

So, my theory isn't that someone is accepting an inferior device. Rather, that if you think the GS3 is awesome and are thinking of buying it a week before Apple is set to introduce a new iPhone, it's prudent to wait to make sure Apple doesn't have something amazing up its sleeve.

Similarly, if Samsung had a press event a week after Apple introduced the iPhone, it would be prudent to wait and see if Samsung had something amazing that they were introducing.

Yeah, sorry I kind of misraead your post and mixed it up with the reply below. Your theory is credible though - as in it has a supporting data point in its favor - Amazon announced that Kindle Fire sales after iPad mini announcement went up 3 times normal.

Your theory should be testable by showing a dip (or some kind of deviation at least) in the sales of the GS3 just prior to the iPhone announcement. However I believe (and I'm sorry, I'm going purely from memory here) that sales were accelerating then too. Personally I think there was just a giant ad spend on all sides that caused a lot of consumers to decide to get a new phone. What phone they chose was down to what they liked when they walked in the store.

Neither theory assumes the S3 is inferior.

The first theory assumes that some consumers will wait until both phone are available to make a choice. Obviously, some will choose iPhone and some S3.

The second theory says that some people will go to buy an iPhone, and instead get an S3 when no iPhones are in stock. Again, plausible. This comment has nothing to do with which phone is better.

It is implied though - if we speculate that most people go to buy an iPhone it sort of implies that iPhone is what people want (people generally want the best) and if they end up with something else it is the second best. No?

I don't believe the second theory said "most". The author just said some people will go to buy a new iPhone, find it out of stock, and buy an S3 instead.

Not to belabor but he claimed it was a common occurence - for it to be a common occurence enough to contribute meaningfully towards the increase in S3 sales the number of people would have to approach most :)

No. It implies that's what a significant number of people want. I don't even know how you can argue against the simple logic of it. Millions of people walk into the store looking for a Galaxy S, they get a Galaxy S. Some other millions walk in looking for an iphone and can't buy one but can buy any of 10 other phones. Some of them will end up waiting, some will end up not buying anything, some will end up buying those other phones. Ergo sales spike.

Help me, what part of that doesn't follow?

It's hardly a data point, but people definitely get confused. A relative was telling me about her new iPhone, when I next met her, she pulled out her Samsung to show me it, still calling it an iPhone. This person isn't stupid, just isn't particularly tech literate.

I guess because of the ubiquity and the amount of mindshare the iPhone got people say iPhone when they really mean SmartPhone.

"Parent assumes however that everyone walking into the store looking for a phone wants or deserves the iPhone"

Absolutely false. I merely point out that many people were looking for an iphone.

"Tangentially is Apple losing their acclaimed grip on the supply chain if they can't make enough iPhones"

No. New iPhones have always been supply constrained because of huge demand. Sprint may have some stock because Sprint's network is shit in many areas.

Unfortunately some people use words, without knowing their meaning:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theory

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothesis

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