SpaceX valuation is also going to be interesting. Talking about CapEx, SpaceX has deorbiting assets on top of depreciating ones. And without Starlink the space launch market size is pretty small.
The deorbiting part is redundant. Their satellite are just that, a depreciating asset. Their lifetime seem to be 5 to 7 years. The important claim is if the total cost, including the launch, can be recuperate over that lifetime or not.
The EV market was mighty small when Tesla started too.
Skate to where the puck is going.
But we’re talking about the launch market in the next 5-10 years, and it’s incredibly obvious it’s about to skyrocket
(Obviously it will “skyrocket” unless someone comes up with a commercially viable launch system that doesn’t involve rocketing into the sky…)
There’s US military stuff like the starsheild, and it seems extremely likely china will follow suit.
Sat internet is changing the world rapidly where fibre can not be run. I saw it first hand in remote Australia, Yukon, Alaska and Africa. Not to mention ships and planes.
These projects are aggressively driving down launch costs, which increases demand for launches, which drives down launch costs which drives up demand.
There is no doubt it is worth a lot in very remote destinations. But by definition there aren't many people there. Thus limited market size.
Launches for US military hardware is a market, yes.
Other countries are going to want to use/build up their own capabilities, so SpaceX won't have market access. Especially China.