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Comment by lm28469 | Hacker News Reader

Because you're hiding the vast majority of facts, like the fact that we already used every last drop of data available, the fact that they spent hundreds of billions on it and no one makes money besides the people selling them GPUs and memory chips, the fact that contrary to most tech these hings aren't getting cheaper to create, &c.

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I suggest looking at some of the recent AI research, as it's not as dead of a field as you imply. Everyone understands that there's no more text and video/image data from the web. There's massive amounts of data outside of this, especially around the context of replacing jobs (think robots). With the last couple years, I don't see any reason to believe today's LLM architectures or training methods are the last to be developed. I think it's really crazy to imply that progress is somehow over.

I'm not sure how money spent is relevant. How many humans are left jobless in the next 20 years should be the concern. If it's 7% in only 5 years, with the very safe assumption that there will be progress, it's still not looking good.

All I'm saying is the hype around these things is always 10x what the reality ends up being, every single time. Autonomous cars, bitcoin, VR, metaverse, it's always the same story, a loooooot of hype, a bit of actual delivery, and move on to the next sca...project

Where does the 7% number come from actually? no one knows... where are the hundred millions of unemployed people? no one knows, where is the productivity increase? no one knows. It moves fast and their shoveling a lot of shit down our throats, that I agree with, I'm just not seeing any of the magic or "AGI in two weeks my dudes" type of things.

Not all hype is the same. Internet was hyped. Automobile ("faster horses please"). Telephone ("we have messengers on horses already"). Radio & Television ("nobody is gonna sit in front of a box all day!"). Computers ("nobody wants these clunky loud things in tehir home"). Smartphones ("no keyboard its useless).

None of these industries had weirdos asking for $7 trillion to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man, they all grew organically over decades before finding their uses without being actively forced into every aspect of your life 2 years after the mvp was released.

In all of those cases capital chased a future reality, railroad, electricity, internet all had massive speculation. the dot com bubble came and went but internet stayed.

$7 trillion looks cartoonish due to inflation, you'd have to normalize it with other economic numbers. Large companies are funding capex with bonds that still within healthy margins per employee head.

> to cure every disease and solve every problem known to man

not sure why you view this so negatively, that would be absolutely worth every penny. Granted there is a lot of noise too but dismissing everything because of the volume is premature. Technological shifts rarely produce catastrophic labor supply/demand shocks that last, it changes how we work and the market adjusts.

You are conflating the hype layer typical with all major technological breakthroughs and the subsequent capability that gets baked into humanity as a result.

What does AGI have to do with it? Look up the top employer for your state [1] (or top few). If you go with the definition that AGI allows novel ideas/innovation, you'll see AGI is not needed for most jobs.

Don't fall for the hype or anti-hype.

[1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/largest-emp...

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