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Comment by fragmede | Hacker News Reader

I don't know if you've heard, but there have been a large number of layoffs in the tech sector recently. Whether they're actually related to AI as executives claim, and not section 174 of the US IRS tax code in the BBB, is known only to them, but if your argument hinges on people having not been fired when there have been layoffs, you may need a different one.

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I think a major contributor to the layoffs is companies hiring to much people around covid[1]. I cant find good stats for the years 2019-2026 besides looking at now and the past directly. There are some data for the ukranin side djinni[1][2] and for US IT job postings[3].

I dont think AI is the reason for the layoffs. Its just easier to say "because of AI we are firing" than to say "because we overhired and its actually our fault".

[1]https://djinni.substack.com/p/2021-in-review [2]https://blog.djinni.co/post/q1-analytics-en [3]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE

As you said, it's impossible to determine how many of the current layoffs are caused by AI, they probably also have a lot to do with the broader economic downturn. But you’re still missing the point, if companies truly have a black box that can produce cheap, high‑quality code as the GP put it, why don't they just fire 95% of their developers and keep only a small core of AI orchestrators?

Who's missing who's point? You're asking why haven't they fired 95% of their people. I'm pointing at tech sector layoffs saying people are being laid off. It's not 95% which is a number you totally made up, but in the broader picture, I wouldn't say it isn't happening.

Don't look now, but https://x.com/jack/status/2027129697092731343

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