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We are at the end of the exponential!

90% chance in 6-12 months spending expectations drop to $0.

Based on what? Each model so far has been noticeably better than the last, so I don’t see why the next wouldn’t be too?

"Can’t you just draw an exponential line on the curve?" - Dario Amodei, February 13th 2026.

But this time draw it for spending expectations.

Are you predicting that OpenAI is out of business in 6-12 months?

I'm not an AI booster, and I don't see "sustainable" in the current markets, but I'd take the other side of that bet!

Even if that were true, it wouldn’t make the growth exponential. There are many other trajectories out there.

Even if it’s not exponential, I still can’t see logic in it going to zero.