Sony is not a distribution platform, ok. Apple is, ok. ESPN is mission critical for all cable platforms, ok. Dis by proxy, ok.
None of these statements are false but none of them lead me to think Apple wants to own any of these content businesses.
If Apple was going to buy any content company it's pretty obvious that they would have bought Pixar. Instead Steve sold Pixar to Disney. Now you're telling us that Disney's owning of these properties like Pixar is terrible for Apple but it doesn't fit the observed data.
You're too focused on Apple, and not focused on the companies defending their positions against Apple. The big threats to Hollywood are: (1) Hulu; (2) Netflix; (3) Apple.
Valuation: (1) $1-2B (2) $10B (3) $6-700B > Notice the orders of magnitude.
Strategy: (1) Hulu - kill by benign neglect (this is done) (2) Netflix - starve of tier 1 content (this is done) (3) Apple - keep them out of the game (this is in process)
Right now, Apple themselves are more focused on SV (google, fb). But Apple has the ability to do things (1) and (2) cannot do, <should they want to> due to size ($100B cash?).
Thus, strategies to kill (1) and (2) don't work (against apple). The best way to 'win' is to never let them into the game.
Hollywood/RIAA will use a combination of vertical-integration, regional oligopoly, and legislation to protect their cash-cow businesses, just common sense.
Hollywood doesn't want to kill Hulu (which it owns) or Netflix any more than it wants to kill Wal-Mart or theater chains. The current threats to Hollywood profits are The Pirate Bay and YouTube and to a lesser extent RedBox. Netflix was briefly in a very favorable contract regime but that didn't last very long at all.
"The best way to 'win' is to never let them into the game."
This entire argument rests on the idea that Apple wants to "be in the game" -- i.e. become a big content company -- but that's what I'm contesting. And the whole thing falls apart because if it's bad for Apple that Disney acquires more content then why did Jobs sell Pixar to Disney?
As for the rest, I think you mis-understand the logic.
The Hollywood's strategy doesn't hinge on Apple's beliefs. In the same way that the strategy in Chess of Black may be pursued absent White understanding it.
The greatest battles won, are those never fought
(to paraphrase Sun Tzu)
It used to be said tha Steve Jobs knew what a consumer wanted before he ever imagined it. It did not matter to Jobs if the consumer was unawares of the virtues of his future products. He built them anyway.
Similarly, when trying purchase financial assets, it is best to do your buying when the rest of the market does not understand your strategy. That keeps the price down, competition at bay, and the liquidity high.
Common sense says: this why hedge funds are secretive.
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[1] Don't think for a moment that this is not fully understood, by the owners.
For a company the size of Apple, to get into content production it would be less expensive and quicker for them to acquire than to build it in house.
And for any good partnership, there needs to be a Win-win on both sides. If Apple were to sabotage it's content agnosticism, would probably hurt it's mobile market share.