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Comment by mrtksn | Hacker News Reader

So, what does that mean? Is Iran one of those regimes that fall when the leader is killed or is it one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going? If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war?

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Where did democracy kicked in in the last two decades after their leaders were assassinated or captured by foreign aggressors though?

The closest is Iraq, and it's not a functioning democracy but a hybrid regime.

Excellent question - my understanding is that previous decapitation attacks were avoided due to the probability that the IRGC would take over as a simple dictatorship. Unclear what's changed now though.

Given the outcome in Venezuela (and Trumps relationships with dictators in generally), it don't seem like that is something Trump necessarily sees as a bad outcome. As long as the dictatorship trades oil and let some American companies in, they can be as dictatorial as they want.

There is this new group this year that is into doing regime change, kind of

My understanding is that the Iranian government is very resilient. The has been a succession plan since the 70s with a broad board of individuals who can choose the next leader.

Blowback is going to be the biggest issue here. Ali Khamenei wasn't just the leader of Iran, he was well respected for Shia muslims. While not perfectly analogous, it's close to killing the pope.

Maybe this leads to open revolt which might fully topple to government, that said, I don't think there's a US/Israel endorsed leader or goal for succession here.

That's actually not true: Khamenei was a political ayatollah, hardly respected for religious judgment by average Shia.

It's my understanding that most ayatollahs get that title through political influence. And for Iran specifically, the supreme leader wouldn't have gotten his position without having that religious influence. It's a theocracy.

Iran is already a parliamentary democracy, the aspect that’s criticized is the fact that candidates must be approved by their religious council. The Ayatollah didn’t/doesn’t exercise direct executive control over the country, so his removal wouldn’t create an immediate leadership vacuum.

For as much as the far right in the US likes to criticize Iran, ultimately their only real complaint about their ‘theocracy with democratic characteristics’ is that it isn’t Christian.

I think you’re out to lunch on what the Iranian government has been doing. They’ve armed Islamic groups all over the Middle East, they armed the Houthis who have been shooting at civilian ships transiting through the straight of Hormuz, they’ve supplied Russia with the drones and arms for the Ukraine invasion, .. and the list goes on and on.

Yes, this is all true, but totally irrelevant to the question I was addressing.

Iran's system of government doesn't really directly relate to their geopolitical strategy. You can have the most awesome democratic system at home and commit absolutely evil atrocities abroad. Just ask Kissinger (or maybe Khamenei can ask him now?).

I was responding to your criticism of the American right wing only caring about religion. I’m not even American and i don’t follow the news and I’ve come across enough valid complaints about the regime that any one of any party would agree with.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran

"is the de facto head of state and the highest political and religious authority of Iran (above the president). The armed forces, judiciary, state radio and television, and other key government organizations such as the Guardian Council and Expediency Discernment Council are subject to the supreme leader."

where did you get this bullshit from?

by every definition of democracy, Iran is very close to the worst end of the scale - just as an example https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/democracy...

So, what does that mean?

Their government is structured to resist this. There are another 20K Mullah's that succeed in their place. I have no idea how much experience they have or how that works in detail. Most of them at the moment AFAIK are in underground bunkers. I'm waiting for news on those.

They assuredly have a succession plan. This won’t cause them to back down.

> one of those regimes that they just choose/install someone else and keep going

The council (50+ members) may elect another leader in his stead, provided the current council can hold on to their seats, which depends on a lot of factors.

> If it falls, will the democracy kick in or a civil war

If the previous Western policy for the region is any indicator, they'd prefer a monarch over democracy. Probably even civil war over democracy, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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