Who thought this? Be careful with your wild use of we here. I'm not part of your we. Opening betting markets has only one ultimate ending where everything is done for the betting.
> one ultimate ending where everything is done for the betting
It really does seem that gambling has this sinister power to cannibalize whatever is being gambled upon, twisting it and transforming it into whatever maximizes the ability for market-makers to generate profit, sharps to extract alpha, and addicts to get their hit of dopamine.
It's hard to measure what anyone actually believes in the current social landscape, where nobody tells the truth. Maybe that's the real purpose of prediction markets.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
Edit:
Actually, turns out "people claiming" includes Polymarket lol
# What is Polymarket
...
Our markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth.
# How accurate are Polymarket odds?
Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than experts, polls, and pundits. .... Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.
This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities. People use Polymarket for the most accurate odds, gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future.
https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/13364060-what-is-pol...