Subscriptions Will Survive in Only Two Places

The core claim is simple. Subscriptions only make sense in two cases. The first is when the product behaves like a utility, where value is continuous and tied to real consumption. The second is when the subscriber receives fresh context on an ongoing basis, where the value cannot be front-loaded or completed. Everything else is a static product wrapped in a recurring fee, and that category is being squeezed from both sides.

The essay looks at Adobe, Spotify, Netflix, BMW, and the broader SaaS market to show how the subscription model became the default, why it worked for a decade, and why the math is now reversing. AI is lowering the cost of building software to the point where small teams can replicate entire product surfaces for a fraction of the incumbent price. At the same time, consumers are discovering that many subscriptions deliver value that is finite, not continuous.

The argument is not that subscriptions disappear. It is that they stratify. The ones that survive are the ones that could not exist in any other form. The rest face a slow collapse as both consumers and builders shift to models that match the actual flow of value.