Not that there are no downside risks, but it would be understood a move to try and head off things by the economy RT represents is basically calling for Götterdämmerung. There's no coming back from an overt move against NATO and related economies now, that moment has passed. All the covert "we bought houses next to your airbases" and "we are playing games with drones" is fine and dandy. If they move troops to forward positions, the lids are coming off the launch tubes.

That's kind of what MAD is. It's also because of MAD that France signals it's intention. No point doing this in secret.

I would point out the Russians also signal intent. So, the M part of MAD is still there. Ukraine aside, there's mutuality around what they do facing european nations, mostly.

Overflights and ships straying off-track have been going on continuously since the 1950s. What changes is the intensity of reportage, not the acts themselves very much.

If you're looking for disquieting change, it's how China is postured. They've decided to be a lot more confrontational about the island chain claims, and Taiwan, and even the reach of their navy on tour around Australia and New Zealand.