If the problem is with third-party software, then end users have a decent chance of finding acceptable alternative software without the problem. The problem is also likely to be limited to some specific applications they use, rather than coming up generally.

If the problem is with Windows, finding acceptable alternative software is unlikely, if it is possible at all. Even worse, users are likely to see the problem affecting most of the applications they use rather than just some specific applications.

I'd say end users would notice and care about the difference between those two scenarios.