Russia is aiding Iran's war effort by providing Intel on US Military targets
cnn.com
cnn.com
Iran’s [war effort]. Not [Iran’s war] effort.
They’re at war. It’s a war effort. Mincing words doesn’t change that. America didn’t wage a defense against Japan after Pearl Harbor, it waged war. War is both offensive and defensive, the original language is fine.
Iran has been 'at war' with the west for a very long time. It's time to redefine the concept of war to be compatible with the 21st century and also include hybrid warfare and war-by-proxy. Iran has been waging war using Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas-aligned factions, Iraqi militias and the consistent aid it gave Russia through the Shahed drone program which is targeting civilians in Ukraine. And I don't even want to go into details about the war Iran is fighting against its own citizens.
I hate to quote Hegseth, but this is the FO phase of the FAFO cycle.
/checks notes
removing oil sanctions from russia
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5772316-oil-pr...
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-could-lift-sancti...
Russia and China have the USA right where they want them unless there is a regime collapse (highly unlikely) or a ground invasion (more likely). The Gulf States will be exhausted and the USA will be ground down defending them.
There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
This is much bigger than most Americans can comprehend at the moment, no one has ever won a war with just an air assault. Iran is twice as big as Iraq, and Israel and the USA have thrown everything they can at it short of a Nuclear bomb and it is still standing.
Just saying...
The long-term outcome is Iran’s domestic drone production gets decimated. If America, meanwhile, gets to field test its new anti-drone kit, from gun- and laser-based platforms to kamikaze drones.
> only thing that can stop it will be a ground invasion
Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory. Ukraine was prohibited by Biden for ages from striking inside Russia, to where the drones and missiles were being made.
> There is also a supply route through the Caspian for China and Russia to bolster Iranian defense. Is the USA willing to invade Russia to stop it?
The pressure point on Putin is tasking the Coast Guard with seizing Russian shadow-fleet tankers again.
> no one has ever won a war with just an air assault
No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
That is impossible without committing to boots on the ground.
> Of course not. You blow up the factories and inventory.
Where are the factories? Where are the stockpiles? If they don't show up on satellite imagery, how do you find them? Boots on the ground. If they're hidden underground or beneath a mountain, how do you blow them up? Boots on the ground.
> No one has ever effected regime change with just air power. America could absolutely achieve a war aim with air power alone once Hegseth gets around to defining it.
The reason he hasn't gotten around to defining a war aim is that there is no legitimate war aim. Netanyahu wanted to blow shit up and the Pentagon foolishly followed along instead of telling him "you're on your own".
Why?
> Where are the factories? Where are the stockpiles? If they don't show up on satellite imagery, how do you find them? Boots on the ground
Same way we found Khamenei. Slowly attriting that production base (together with Iran’s economy) is something America can do from afar for a while. Bonus points if Iran’s neighbours get pissed off enough to start seizing buffer territory with their own boots.
> there is no legitimate war aim
Of course there is. It’s regime change. We just haven’t committed the resources to accomplishing it.