And how would the OP or anyone else know the Federal Reserve Board does "a half decent job?"
"Money is not debt" - Did he mean "currency is not debt"? When I borrow $10k at the bank, money is created (they need only maintain a fractional reserve) and there is also an associated debt created - I owe the bank $10k. The "money" and the debt are unconditionally linked.
I think he's overspecified his point, that possibly being that macroeconomists have no trustworthy predictive models. Inotherwords, he's repeating part of Nassim Nicholas Taleb's work: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/