the interesting thing about kalshi trade data is how thin most contracts actually are. 203M trades sounds like a lot but spread across thousands of event contracts, most individual markets have barely any depth. i've watched sports contracts where a single \00 order moves the price 8-10 cents. that illiquidity is both the problem (hard to get fills at displayed prices) and the opportunity — prices stay mispriced way longer than they should compared to sharp books or even polymarket on the same event
Interesting how flat trade growth was for years until September of last year...I wonder what changed.