Previously I had seen 95% somewhere else but cannot find the link, but that's close enough.
The reason why this is credible is Iran is limited by its amount of launchers, and Israel is very effective at destroying these. With complete air superiority and drones flying over, it's very easy to spot the heat signature for a launcher.
Add to that the launchers that were effectively buried at the start of the war when the openings to Iran's underground missile storage facilities were bombed.
https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-updat...
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/iranian...
In any case, you are arguing something else. It is a fact that the number of ballistic missiles Iran is capable of launching had fallen sharply, this is very easy to see by the reduction of alarms in Israel, which is served by an open API. You are arguing whether missiles ever hit.
Because Iran ability to launch had fallen sharply, less Israeli citizens are hurt and less interceptors are needed. This is also progressive, as the days pass, Iran loses more and more launchers and is less capable of launching more missiles. Therefore even in the unlikely event of an Israeli interceptor crisis, the situation is rather favorable to Israel
Yesterday night, Iran was able to hit multiple targets in Tel Aviv including rail infrastructure, a factory and a few buildings. They reportedly launched around 300 missiles almost on par with what they launched in Feb but with more direct hits.
> Therefore even in the unlikely event of an Israeli interceptor crisis, the situation is rather favorable to Israel
Most of the missiles were destroyed by interceptors. If they run out, we will be looking at huge casualties and infra damage within few days.
Iran’s fewer launches are now hitting their targets more.
This can be seen in much less overall damage than the 12 day war or the death count which is lower