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> "Collapse" isn't within the statistical distribution though

Uh? Maybe you could explain what you mean by this a bit more.

1. It's not a rigorously defined term.

2. "System collapse" would be unexplored territory, so how would statistical analysis be able to infer when it occurs?

1. Not really. If the crash rates we're seeing under the Trump administration are higher than any similar length period in the last ~10 years, we should start to worry.

2. See above.

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