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Who is to say if it rained or not? Well now they are a target.

A NY Times reporter was the target of a pressure and threat campaign to change their reporting over whether a rocket in the middle east was intercepted or not before it hit the ground.

Prediction markets are not going to end well full stop IMHO.

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That was a Times of Israel reporter Emanuel Fabian [1] but your point stands.

Prediction markets create incentives to predict the outcome of an event, which can be done in one of three ways: develop better models to predict the event, affect the event, or affect the reporting on the event.

[1] https://www.timesofisrael.com/gamblers-trying-to-win-a-bet-o...

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”

That's only for futures that are easy to invent, for others it is way easier to just bribe or threaten a journalist (works on most journalists, YMMV) to say that you've invented it and then run off with the money before anyone can prove you wrong.

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