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Comment by AnimalMuppet | Hacker News Reader

Plant-based ones that were harvested by machines that burn petroleum.

And grown with fertilizer produced using energy provided by burning petroleum.

That’s a pretty amazing definition of upstream. I imagine you probably understand that plastics, pharmaceuticals, and fertilizers are made out of petroleum derivatives, right?

Since you seem pretty smart: are there petroleum based cooking oils?

The machinery to make them, the fertilisers to grow them, the plastic to package them, the transport to deliver them. It ain’t just cooking oils that will be massively impacted. The entire food chain in the western world is reliant on petrochemicals. The only question is the lag between now and when those impacts start being felt and this translates into bumped prices and/or shortages.

EDIT: corrected an autocorrection.

Is there anything in that chain that actually requires petroleum and couldn't be replaced with alternative with similar properties and prices?

Yes: the time. It's spring time, when most crops are being sowed, of have been sowed and started growing actively. They won't wait several months until the production of fertilizers switches to electrically produced hydrogen, and tractors are upgraded to run off electric power. As the crops ripen, they won't wait until combine harvesters and trucks are converted to run off electric power. Nobody in the agricultural world has a few billions lying around to build massive solar capacity, battery capacity, and redesign the agricultural machinery, all at impossibly breakneck pace.

Instead I suggest that they will buy the fuel at higher prices, and sell less produce, and also milk and meat which are downstream from feed crops, at higher prices. More than that, in a bout of bitter irony, the West might need to lift sanctions from Russian oil, and maybe ask Russia to drill and sell more.

This, or the US should somehow defeat IRGC and defeat / appease the Iranian Army, and unblock the strait. I wonder if it's going to cost less even along the monetary dimension.

> More than that, in a bout of bitter irony, the West might need to lift sanctions from Russian oil,

The US has already done this!

Sanctioned shadow fleet takners still get arrested. With enough oil shortage, these tankers can be left alone, and the whole activity quietly encouraged.

Truly, Iran turns out to be an invaluable ally to Russia.

Sanctions against Russian oil might ultimately not matter that much. Ukraine has already demonstrated that it can hit Baltic and Black Sea ports, and Arctic ports might also be within range. That would leave only Pacific ports and Asian pipelines open for exports.

Ok so just checking: no cooking oil is made of petroleum then?

To prevent your focus on cooking oil becoming pedantic you might acknowledge at least the veracity of "plastics, fertilizers and pharmaceuticals" being impacted.

You might read the rest of the thread (in particular, my posts above) if you seek these details.

Here's my definition of upstream: If the petroleum stops, the cooking oil stops, even though the cooking oil is 100% plant-based.

Given that what we're talking about is disruptions caused by a shortage of petroleum, is there any other definition of "upstream" that is meaningful for the conversation?

That is the normal definition of upstream. To harvest and transport the olives and olive oil, you need trucks, and often plastic containers and bottles. These farms and distributors will pass on their price of fuel and petroleum materials to the consumer.

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